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From Chess to Cyber: Dmitri Alperovitch's Journey to Defend Against Nation-State Threats
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Geopolitics has always been at the root of cyber, at least for the last 15-plus years. And that was part of the incentives for starting CrowdStrike — realizing that this is only getting worse. (Dmitri Alperovitch)
(00:00-08:11)
Dmitri shares how his early interest in encryption, influenced by his father's work in applied mathematics, led him to a lifelong passion for cybersecurity. He emphasizes the dynamic, adversarial nature of cybersecurity, likening it to a never-ending game of chess against sentient opponents.
Dmitri explains the origins of CrowdStrike, highlighting the realization that nation-state cyber threats, particularly from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, were not being adequately addressed. He discusses how geopolitical factors drive these cyber threats and the role of these nations in encouraging cyber attacks on Western targets.
The conversation also covers the reasons behind CrowdStrike's success, including the critical timing of its launch, the failure of established companies like McAfee and Symantec to innovate, and the challenges of fostering innovation within large, bureaucratic organizations.
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From Cybersecurity to Global Strategy: Dmitri Alperovitch on Geopolitics and Policy
(08:11-16:42)
Dmitri shares his early passion for international relations and how his work in cybersecurity naturally led him to engage with government policy. He describes how his involvement with policy and law enforcement started early in his career, driven by a need to address cyber threats from a broader, more comprehensive perspective.
Dmitri recounts his experience with Operation Aurora at McAfee and how this spurred his deeper involvement with governmental agencies and policy-making in Washington, D.C. He discusses his prediction of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, drawing from his extensive understanding of geopolitical dynamics and his historical insights. Dmitri explains the five key reasons he believed Putin was determined to invade Ukraine, which included distorted historical views, personal and national destiny, strategic geographic concerns, and Putin’s personal ego.
He also draws parallels between Putin's motivations and those of Xi Jinping regarding Taiwan, highlighting the similar historical, strategic, and personal drivers influencing these leaders.
On Ukraine, Taiwan and Policy
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I think our foreign policy since President Carter's and Brzezinski's days in the late 70s has become very moralistic. We tend to see things as good versus evil. And look, there's certainly a number of evil regimes out there. But if you have that confrontation of good versus evil and you are not looking at the path to potential coexistence with some of these countries, you're going to be fighting a lot. (Dmitri Alperovitch)
(16:42-27:39)
The speakers begin with Dmitri's prediction about China's invasion of Taiwan in 2028, exploring the strategic timing behind such forecasts.
Dmitri contrasts his views with those of political scientist John Mearsheimer, who attributes the Ukraine conflict primarily to NATO expansion. Dmitri argues for a more nuanced understanding, emphasizing multiple factors such as Putin's historical ambitions and desire to control Ukraine. He highlights the complexity of geopolitical events, noting that no single cause drives such conflicts.
The discussion then shifts to the broader implications of historical grievances and strategic motivations. Dmitri explains how Putin's perception of Ukraine as inherently Russian fuels his aggressive policies, much like China's historical narrative about Taiwan influences its geopolitical stance. He underscores the importance of understanding these deep-seated beliefs to navigate and potentially de-escalate conflicts.
Dmitri also discusses the moralistic approach of U.S. foreign policy since the late 1970s and suggests a need for more pragmatic engagement. He draws lessons from the Cold War, particularly JFK's handling of the West Berlin crisis, to illustrate the importance of strategic communication and negotiation even with adversaries.
This segment concludes with Dmitri's argument that resolving the Taiwan issue could stabilize U.S.-China relations, drawing a parallel to how the resolution of the West Berlin crisis led to a more manageable Cold War dynamic. He advocates for recognizing Taiwan as a critical flashpoint and addressing it thoughtfully to prevent larger conflicts.
The Strategic Significance of Taiwan
(27:39-37:04)
Dmitri compares Taiwan's significance today to that of West Berlin during the Cold War. He explains that just as the U.S. saw West Berlin as essential for containing Soviet expansion, Taiwan is now seen as crucial for limiting China's regional dominance.
The geographic positioning of Taiwan is critical. It sits in the "first island chain" that effectively contains China. If China were to control Taiwan, it would gain a significant strategic advantage, potentially pushing U.S. influence out of the Western Pacific.
Taiwan is a powerhouse in semiconductor manufacturing, producing 90% of the world's advanced chips. These chips are essential for the global digital economy, making Taiwan's stability crucial for technological and economic security worldwide.
The ability to project naval power is key to being a global superpower. Dmitri explains that China’s ambitions to become the world's leading superpower hinge on its naval capabilities. Control over Taiwan would allow China to break through the first island chain, enhancing its maritime reach.
Dmitri argues that the U.S. must take a firm stand on Taiwan to maintain global stability and prevent China from becoming a dominant force in the region. This involves making it clear that any aggressive moves by China will have significant consequences, thereby deterring potential invasions.
Dmitri highlights the longer-term tension of the West Berlin crisis compared to the short but intense Cuban Missile Crisis. He underscores how strategic stands, like those taken during the Cold War, can prevent larger conflicts and stabilize geopolitical tensions.
Global Power Struggles and the Future of Democracy
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I don't necessarily agree that America has always had a benevolent foreign policy. We certainly made mistakes and I criticize a lot our foreign policy over the last 30-plus years where we've become too enamored with our hubris and power and decided that we are going to be the world's policemen and fix problems all over the world. I believe that was a great mistake. (Dmitri Alperovitch)
(37:04-44:58)
Dmitri explains that Taiwan is crucial because it is situated in a region that accounts for almost 50% of the world's GDP and is central to global supply chains. Control over Taiwan would allow China to project its power globally, potentially reducing American influence and leading to a less secure and prosperous United States.
If China were to dominate Taiwan, it would signal a shift in global power dynamics, with China emerging as the new hegemon in a critical part of the world. This would undermine the global security order established by the United States since World War II.
Dmitri discusses how a decline in American power could lead to more conflicts and the rise of authoritarian regimes around the world. He emphasizes that democracies are less likely to engage in wars with each other, so a world with more authoritarian states, influenced by China, would likely be more dangerous.
Alex and Dmitri critically evaluate American foreign policy, acknowledging past mistakes like the Iraq War and prolonged involvement in Afghanistan. Dmitri argues that while the U.S. has not always acted benevolently, its efforts to promote democracy and human rights have largely been positive for the world compared to China's actions.
Alex encourages listeners to consider the Chinese perspective on American foreign policy, recognizing that China may view America's global actions skeptically. Understanding this perspective is crucial for finding potential compromises and better managing the U.S.-China relationship.
Despite America's flaws, Dmitri asserts that the U.S. remains a more attractive and innovative system compared to China. He highlights the importance of leading by example rather than trying to impose democratic values through force, suggesting that the U.S. should focus on being a model for others to follow.
Balancing Power, Principles, and Pragmatism
(44:58-52:34)
Alex and Dmitri discuss a famous concept from a historical document known as the "Long Telegram" by George Kennan, emphasizing the importance of the U.S. maintaining confidence in its own values and systems. Despite its flaws, America’s strength lies in its technology, innovation, institutions, and attractiveness to immigrants, which contrasts with China's less appealing authoritarian model.
Dmitri highlights the numerous advantages the U.S. has, including the world’s greatest alliances, the largest economy, and a powerful military. He suggests that while the title of his book, World on the Brink, sounds dire, it also outlines how the U.S. can leverage these strengths to succeed in what he terms "Cold War II" with China.
The hosts touch on the need for political will in America to address these global challenges effectively. Democracies have mechanisms to generate political will, but it is often a tough and complex process.
Dmitri discusses why China and Russia are succeeding in attracting autocratic regimes, particularly in Africa, by offering more pragmatic and less moralistic partnerships. This approach contrasts with America's often idealistic and moralizing foreign policy.
Both hosts critically evaluate past American foreign policy, acknowledging mistakes and emphasizing the need for a more pragmatic approach. They argue that America should work with the world as it is, rather than trying to impose democratic values by force.
The discussion emphasizes the balance between maintaining moral conviction and being pragmatic. America’s strength lies in its democratic values and way of life, but this sometimes clashes with realpolitik considerations.
Reflecting on John F. Kennedy's American University speech, Alex and Dmitri explore how the principles of recognizing mutual interests and striving for peace can be applied to current U.S.-China relations. They emphasize the importance of avoiding escalation and finding common ground to ensure global stability.
The hosts discuss the importance of empathy and understanding the perspectives of other nations. By acknowledging differences while seeking common interests, the U.S. can foster a more balanced and less confrontational foreign policy.
The New Cold War: Preventing Catastrophe with China
(52:34-1:07:25)
Dmitri draws parallels between the Berlin Wall and the Taiwan Strait, emphasizing the need for a metaphorical wall to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Historically, the U.S. had good relations with China when it was less powerful, but as China has grown stronger, it now poses a real threat to Taiwan.
Dmitri outlines three scenarios: successfully deterring China from invading Taiwan, China invading and either winning or losing. He stresses that any invasion would be disastrous globally, causing economic depression and significant loss. The goal is to maintain peace and avoid conflict at all costs.
Alex and Dmitri discuss the challenges of rallying political will in the U.S. to address these issues effectively. Dmitri notes that bipartisan agreement on the threat posed by China has led to significant legislative actions, such as the CHIPS and Science Act.
Dmitri highlights the need for the U.S. to maintain economic and military superiority to keep the balance of power stable and avoid direct conflict with China. He believes that the U.S. can achieve this without resorting to war.
Dmitri is skeptical about propaganda’s role in the Cold War victory, attributing the Soviet Union’s collapse to internal issues. He doesn’t see China collapsing in the same way and stresses that the goal isn’t to see the Chinese Communist Party fall, but to prevent conflict and maintain a stable balance of power.
China faces demographic challenges that will likely erode its economic power over time. Dmitri suggests that the U.S. should focus on maintaining the status quo in Taiwan and waiting for these natural economic shifts.
Avoiding war through deterrence is crucial. Dmitri emphasizes that the opposite of war isn’t peace, but rather the absence of war. The U.S. needs to focus on preventing conflict rather than trying to force political changes in China.
Dmitri’s book, World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century, outlines strategies for the U.S. to maintain its strengths and avoid conflict with China. He also promotes his podcast, Geopolitics Decanted, for further insights.
Check the episode's Transcript (AI-generated) HERE.
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