CIO Insights Resilience versus recession 09 Asia: hope in the Year of the Rabbit India, Indonesia and China – three of the four most populous economies on earth with more than three billion inhabitants in total – could each see GDP grow by 5-6% in 2023. The developed economies of South Korea and Japan may also grow more rapidly than those of most other developed markets. We expect Asian economies to largely reopen by no later than spring 2023. The Chinese government’s fiscal measures, which have been restrained so far, could then have their full impact, for example, in the areas of digital transformation, infrastructure, transport, renewables and biotech. This would be advantageous for China’s trading partners in Asia, too. Accumulated private savings in China may be spent on holiday travel, and popular destinations such as Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines would profit from this. India is currently expanding its manufacturing sector on a massive scale and launched a major infrastructure investment programme in early 2022 to encourage foreign company offshoots. The Japanese government is banking on comprehensive fiscal support to alleviate the energy crisis for its domestic businesses. The risks to growth in Asia in 2023 emanate primarily from increasing geopolitical tensions, especially in the Pacific, a potential reigniting of the Chinese real estate crisis, and from delays in rolling back the strict Covid-19 containment measures in China. Figure 14: Consensus expectations for selected Asian equity markets Source: Refinitiv, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of November 3, 2022. % 30 25 24 20 20 21 17 17 15 14 15 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 14 11 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 5 1 0 0 -5 -7 -8 -10 -15 Phillippines India China Malaysia Japan Thailand Indonesia South Korea Taiwan EPS growth 2023 EPS growth 2024 P/E 2023 In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was produced in December 2022. 23