Analysis Highlights • Keytruda set to be the top selling drug worldwide in 2024, as Humira loses top spot due to adalimumab biosimilar entry in the EU and expected USA biosimilar competition from 2023 • Should Bristol Myers-Squibb complete its intended acquisition of Celgene and forecast projections for a combined portfolio hold, the combined entity would be the 3rd largest pharmaceutical company based on 2024 prescription sales • Vertex’s triple combination, VX-659/VX-445 + Tezacaftor + Ivacaftor, is anticipated to be the most valuable project in the pharmaceutical industry pipeline with an NPV of close to $20bn • Oncology is the area with the largest proportion of clinical development spending with 40% of total pipeline expenditure, with close to 20% market share of pharma sales in 2024 • R&D spend is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 3.0% to 2024, lower than the CAGR of 4.2% between 2010 and 2018, partially driven by companies focusing on smaller indications with lower clinical development cost burden • Roche leads the way in biotechnology, with a forecasted $38.7bn of biologic sales in 2024, despite a decrease in biotech market share of -5.4% owing to the e昀昀ect of biosimilars • Johnson & Johnson are forecast to narrowly overtake Roche to be the biggest spender on pharmaceutical R&D in 2024 ® 6 EvaluatePharma World Preview 2019 Copyright © 2019 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.