First Look | 2023
State of European Tech
First Look | 2023 @SuperVenture in Berlin - June 2023
The adjusted Cumulative month-by-month capital invested in Europe by year market reality Funding is here to stay $125B 2021 $106B $100B 2022 $83B $75B $B 2023F $51B $50B 2020 $38B $36B 2019 $25B Pre-2018 Source: Atomico (powered by Dealroom.co and Feb Jan Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Crunchbase) Notes: Data is as of 14th of May, with May total Source: Atomico ( powered by Dealroom and extrapolated based first half of the month data. Full Crunchbase) year extrapolated based on year to date data. Excludes the following: biotech, secondary transactions, debt, lending capital, and grants.
It’s a global Change in capital invested, 2023F vs. 2021 (%) by region phenomenon China United States Europe RoW 2021 2021 2021 2021 $83B $300B $106B $143B 2023F 2023F 2023F 2023F $42B $153B $51B $77B Change in investment levels, -49% -49% -52% -46% 2023F vs. 2021 (%) by region Source: Atomico (powered by Dealroom.co and Crunchbase) Notes: Data is as of 14th of May, with May total extrapolated based first half of the month data. Full year extrapolated based on year to date data. Excludes the following: biotech, secondary transactions, debt, lending capital, and grants. CONFIDENTIAL
US investors Cents invested by US VC-funds for every $1 invested by retracted European VCs into European startups Cents vs $1 invested by European VCs 100c 75c European investors 66c US investors 54c 46c 50c 40c 34c 25c 2019 2020 2021 2022 H1’23 Source: Dealroom.co Notes: Data is as of 15 May 2023. Investor Summit 2022 - Confidential
Slowdown Capital invested by country, H1’22 to H1’23 Funding visible across YoY change $20B Europe -57% H1’2022 $15B H2’2022 -55% H1’2023 $10B -44% $5B y y e e d a ds c UK tria op w an eden Spain r F Aus erlan erman Nor Sw f Eur Source: Atomico (powered by Dealroom.co G Denmark th and Crunchbase) t o Switzerlan s Ne e Notes: Data is as of 14th of May, with H1 total R extrapolated based on year to date data. Excludes the following: biotech, secondary transactions, debt, lending capital, and grants.
Founders are responding to the adjusted reality Valuation reset Layoffs Down rounds icon icon icon Median EV/NTM revenue There were over 185,000 20% of global venture multiple of public SaaS global tech layoffs in Q1 23, rounds raised in Q1 23 companies has fallen to with 6% in Europe, were down rounds - 3.6x 5.0x, below the long-term compared to almost higher than in Q1 22 average of 7.8x 165,000 in the whole of 2022 Source: Clouded Judgement, Layoffs.fyi, Carta CONFIDENTIAL
Private market Median pre-money valuation ($M) by stage, 2013 to 2023 valuations Seed Series A reset to Valuation Valuation long-term 55% $6M $30M averages $4M $20M $2M $10M of US of US 56% Median 55% median median 10YR average Q3’13 Q2’23 Q3’13 Q2’23 5YR average Series B Valuation 66% $100M of US median $50M Source: Pitchbook Q3’13 Q2’23 Notes: Data is as of 15 May 2023.
Ecosystem Total value of the European tech ecosystem ($T) value levelled out at $3 Ecosystem trillion value $3.0T $3B Public market Private market $2B $1.0T $1B $0.5T Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Dealroom.co 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 H1’23 Notes: Private market data from Dealroom.co excludes the following: biotech, secondary transactions, debt, lending capital, and grants. Based on data up to 15 May 2023. Public markets data as per S&P Capital IQ Platform, as of date 15 May 2023, for illustrative purposes only. Please also note that the data excludes Israel.
European VC Horizon pooled return (net) by fund index, December 31, 2022 returns outperforming 20 Year 15 Year 10 Year 5 Year 3 Year 1 Year over long-term Europe Developed Venture 12.1 12.7 20.0 27.5 30.1 -18.8 Capital Index $B US Venture Capital Index 12.2 12.7 18.7 22.5 25.0 -20.8 Europe Developed Private 14.7 10.9 15.2 16.0 17.9 -6.1 Equity Index Source: Cambridge Associates MSCI Europe Index 5.3 2.4 4.6 2.1 1.5 -14.0 Notes: Data is as of 31 December 2022. 2022 MSCI Source: Atomico ( powered by Dealroom and Europe Index is derived from the CA Modified Public Crunchbase) Market Equivalent (mPME), which replicates private investment performance under public market conditions.
Europe’s early Early stage (sub $15M rounds) capital invested ($B) by quarter stage pipeline Funding is resilient $19B $20B Q4 Q3 $15B Q2 Q1 $10B $8B $5B Source: Atomico ( powered by Dealroom.co 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 H1’23 and Crunchbase) Notes: Data is as of 15 May 2023 with H1 figures extrapolated linearly. Excludes the following: biotech, secondary transactions, debt, lending capital, and grants.
Europe closing Share of global capital invested in sub-$5m rounds by region, 2013, 2018 the gap with and 2023 the US Share 59% Europe 60% United States 45% 38% 36% 29% 30% 25% 18% 15% Source: Atomico (powered by Dealroom.co 2013 2018 H1’23 and Crunchbase) Notes: Data is as of 15 May 2023. Excludes the following: biotech, secondary transactions, debt, lending capital, and grants. Investor Summit 2022 - Confidential
New startup Number of new tech startups founded per year, 2018 to 2022 formation is slowing, New tech startups though Europe 19k 20k 18k on par with US -15% ‘21 vs ‘22E -19% 14k 15k Europe 14k United States 12k 11k 10k 5k $25B Source: Revelio Labs 2019 2018 2020 2021 2022E Notes: 2022 estimates adjusted for reporting lag (extrapolated based on snapshots at different points in time).
Europe’s founders have never been Repeat founders From operator to founder Share of founders starting a company Share of founders starting a company better each quarter with prior founder each quarter with prior senior experience i.e. “serial founders” (%) experience* at a company that raised in total over $50M (%) Q4 2022 Q4 2022 37% 19% Q4 2018 Q4 2018 Source: Atomico (powered by Dealroom.co, Crunchbase and Revelio Labs) 29% 11% Notes: Based on founders attributes and the date they indicated starting their company. We are limiting the analysis to European founders and excluded “non-tech” companies as defined by Atomico’s proprietary classification model. *Senior experience includes job titles such as VP, C-suite, Head of X. CONFIDENTIAL
Talent Number of new founders spun out from European unicorns, by unicorn founding decade and years since founding flywheel is accelerating Founders 10 years since 20 years since with unicorn spun out founding founding alumni 1,500 1,402 1,406 2010s unicorns $B 1,000 2000s unicorns 801 1990s unicorns 500 151 75 $25B Source: Atomico (powered by Dealroom.co, 5 Crunchbase and Revelio Labs) 5 0 10 15 20 Notes: Based on founders attributes and the date Source: Atomico ( powered by Dealroom and Years since unicorn founding they indicated starting their company. We are Crunchbase) limiting the analysis to European founders and excluded “non-tech” companies as defined by Atomico’s proprietary classification model.
Emerging AI leaders, while purpose-driven tech grows in share Generative AI Financial Services Climate / Purpose icon icon icon … accounts for 35% of all … remains the largest … remains the third AI/ML funding year to sector in H1 with 20% of all largest theme after date, the highest share funding captured, yet this Software at 18% of all ever and a significant jump has shrunk from 29% in funding, up 3ppt from 15% from its 5% high last year H1’22 in H1’22 Source: Data as of 15 May 2023. GenAI data based on Pitchbook ‘Gen AI’ curated list. Fintech and Climate / Purpose capital invested based on Atomico data (powered by Dealroom.co and Crunchbase) CONFIDENTIAL
Exits are still European tech M&A transaction value and tech IPO market cap at muted and led close of first trading day ($B) by announcement year Exit value by M&A $200B $177B Tech IPOs $166B Tech M&A $150B $100B $70B $48B $50B $21B Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence 2019 2020 2021 2022 H1’23 Notes: S&P Capital IQ Platform, as of date 15 May 2023, for illustrative purposes only. H1 figures extrapolated linearly based on year to date figures. Includes announced and completed M&A transactions only (excluding since terminated/withdrawn).
2023 outlook Challenging macro will persist, but the reset has created a healthier 01 ecosystem as the industry is stripped back to first principles More founders will return to market in H2 as runways narrow, sustaining 02 investment volumes, but also more down rounds and consolidation Exit market could re-open at the end of the year, with a potential IPO 03 window in Q4. Strong pipeline of companies waiting in readiness Quality of talent at both founder and operator level will continue to 04 strengthen, as fewer, but higher quality new companies are created 05 AI supercycle to drive a golden age of innovation. European tech will have a key role, and the potential for huge value creation CONFIDENTIAL
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