FIGURE 20 Full Electrification Scenario hourly electricity demand (excludes hydrogen electrolysis) 90 80 70 ) 60 GW ( 50 3 40 202 30 20 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 90 80 70 ) 60 GW ( 50 4 40 203 30 20 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 90 80 70 ) 60 GW ( 50 050 40 2 30 20 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Subsector WEATHER (YEAR) Building & Productive Transportation The Full Electrification Scenario and resulting building electrification results in SPP becoming a winter-peaking system by 2050. By 2034 the system is dual peaking with similar summer and winter peaks, depending on the weather conditions each year. The magnitude of winter peaks after electrification is highly sensitive to assumptions made in EnergyPATHWAYS regarding heat and cold weather performance, cut-out temperatures and back-up fuel types, and other efÏciency measures, e.g., building shell improvements, which might be applied in parallel. This work assumes high efÏciency cold weather heat pumps are sold and that such systems switch to electric resistance heating once -13 degrees Fahrenheit is reached. This matches the highest performance systems sold in the U.S. today8 8 Example system: https://www.mitsubishicomfort.com/articles/mythbusters-heat-pumps-for-extreme-cold-climates SPP FUTURE LOAD SCENARIOS | EVOLVED ENERGY RESEARCH | 27