shared responsibility between sectors, with local landscape, leading to spiralling distrust, declining and national governments, business and civil society safeguards against mutually assured economic each playing to their strengths, rather than traditional destruction, and currency and technological tools models of governments addressing market failures that are less in昀氀uential. Even areas traditionally 8 when they occur. For example, private-public open to collaboration, such as international climate partnerships can help close key gaps in innovation, research, are under threat. For example, data 昀椀nancing, governance and implementation of regarding Russia’s boreal forests –the biggest land- preparedness measures for emerging and well- based carbon store on the planet – is no longer established risks, such as food and water insecurity, available for international scienti昀椀c research because 11 weakened education and healthcare systems, and of the war in Ukraine. insuf昀椀cient regulation of dual-use technologies, or addressing the looming insurance gap relating to International organizations will continue to play 9 cyberwarfare. Innovative collaborations can also an essential role in global preparedness, even as minimize overall exposure to potential impacts, as they face signi昀椀cant headwinds that risk degrading organizations across geographies and sectors are the guardrails in place to address well-established rarely exposed to the same risks at the same time. issues. There have been numerous examples of the For example, data centres of different institutions politicization and partial paralysis of key international in differing geographies are highly unlikely to be mechanisms and organizations in recent crises. exposed to the same cyber or extreme weather These pressures may impede the development risks, meaning effective mitigation could include of meaningful norms and agreements required to regular backups of each other’s systems.10 mitigate emerging global risks – from the proliferation of military technologies to governing the global commons. Re-invigorating multilateral processes and Re-building and strengthening organizations is critical to the future of preparing for global risk preparedness and managing global risks. cooperation Additionally, speci昀椀c cooperation at sectoral, bilateral and regional levels will become even more important While national risk preparedness can enhance the in this environment. Robust data exchange and ability of societies and economies to rebound from collaborative monitoring processes have already shocks, most global risks are ‘owned’ by no one been established for some global risks (natural and sit outside the direct control of any one public disasters, extreme weather events and terrorist or private sector entity – meaning many global risks attacks, among others). Further, open-source data are most effectively tackled through coordinated, and scenario development have helped increase global action. Respondents to the GRPS shared their the effectiveness of individual risk responses, such views on which stakeholders were best prepared as the extensive work undertaken by the IPCC to tackle the key risks covered in the survey (Figure to develop a range of climate scenarios that has 4.1). The majority consider national governments, improved understanding, informed decarbonization multi-country efforts and international organizations strategies and allowed for collective alignment on to be the most relevant stakeholders for governing science-based targets. However, efforts are more these global risks – recognizing that global risks are nascent or non-existent in other areas, such as the complex, and effective preparedness can require long-term trajectory and impact of transformative AI. action at local, national, regional and global levels. Greater collaboration across industries and between countries – in terms of coordinated funding, research International cooperation has reached levels that and data sharing – is critical to help identify weak may have been unimaginable even a century ago. signals of emerging threats at both a national and However, the recent overload of crises has turned the global level. focus of nations inwards and the emerging outlook for international cooperation is deteriorating. Actions In a complex risks outlook, there must be a better taken to shore up national resilience can be self- balance between national preparedness and perpetuating. For example, stockpiling and export global cooperation. We need to act together, to controls can directly exacerbate global shortages shape a pathway out of cascading crises and build and position trade, 昀椀nancial and technological collective preparedness to the next global shock, dependencies as a strategic vulnerability, spurring whatever form it might take. Leaders must embrace further disintegration. Similarly, the pursuit of complexity and act on a balanced vision to create a domestic and global security goals may have stronger, prosperous shared future. unintended consequences for the geopolitical Global Risks Report 2023 72