GLOBAL TRENDS2040 A MORE CONTESTED WORLD EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC OCEANIA a Internet Users (of population)c FIVE LARGEST CITIES By population in 2035 (million) b % GDP PER CAPITA 0 60.2 100 US$ at purchasing 2020 2040 2020 b 1 MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA 6.1 power parity 2019 Digital skills of workforce ratingd TYPES OF READINESS FOR $34.0K $43.3K a 3.4 2 SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA 5.9 GOVERNMENTS DIGITAL ECONOMY 1 = not at all to a great extent = 7 Number of countries 3 BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA 2.9 c Information globalization ratinge RELIGION 2 87.5 Liberal Democracies 1 = low high = 100 4 PERTH, AUSTRALIA 2.4 2020 % % % % 65.1 25.3 2.4 2.2 Hold free and fair multiparty elections and guarantee freedom of speech and b 2019 or latest available data. 5 AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND 1.9 2040 % % % % expression. Liberal democracies also c International Telecommunication Union. 62.1 27.8 2.5 2.4 uphold the rule of law and have d World Economic Forum. Christian Agnostic/ Buddhist Muslim constraints on the executive. e KOF Globalization Index. Atheist 2 Electoral Democracies f 2020 2040 This map illustrates likely changes in maximum temperature, a a Hold free and fair multiparty elections drought, and hurricane/cyclone activity in 2040—compared to AGE STRUCTURE AGE STRUCTURE and guarantee freedom of speech the 1980-2005 baseline—given conditions specified by the and expression, but do not uphold United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Under 15 15-64 65+ Under 15 15-64 65+ the rule of law and/or do not have (IPCC) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. constraints on the executive. 23.6% 63.6% 12.8% 20.9% 62.3% 16.8% While several different temperature measures could have been 2040 used, maximum temperature on the hottest day of the year was TEMPERATURE, chosen given the severe human, agricultural, and economic costs MALE Age FEMALE MALE Age FEMALE Electoral Autocracies 2 DROUGHT, AND associated with heat waves. When combined with longer 80+ 80+ HURRICANE droughts, these effects are multiplied. 75-79 Hold elections but they are not free, fair, 75-79 and multiparty, and/or the government ACTIVITY 70-74 70-74 does not guarantee freedom of speech 65-69 65-69 and expression. 60-64 60-64 0 2.5 55-59 55-59 Increase in the hottest day 50-54 50-54 0 temperature, Celsius 45-49 45-49 Closed Autocracies 40-44 40-44 Do not even hold multiparty 35-39 35-39 elections for the chief executive. 30-34 30-34 Increase in the longest annual 25-29 25-29 drought by 2.5 days or more 20-24 20-24 a Varieties of Democracy, 2020. The 15-19 15-19 number of countries included in this 10-14 10-14 study may not equal the number listed f Data: Clemens Schwingshackl, Jana Sillman, and the Centre for 5-9 5-9 separately under “Selected Regions Increase in major International Climate and Environmental Research. 0-4 0-4 and Countries. hurricane activity Graphic: Pardee Center University of Denver. 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 1 0 0 1 2 Million Million a b c 138 United Nations Population Division. | Oxford Economics. | World Religion Database.