he increasing convergence Tof seemingly unrelated Scienti昀椀c Convergence Sparking Innova- 昀椀elds and the rise of global tion. The convergence of seemingly unrelated competition to generate areas of scienti昀椀c research and technological applications is making the rapid development and lock in advantage are of novel applications possible, practical, and accelerating the emergence useful. For example, the smartphone was enabled by decades of basic research and of cutting-edge technologies. development in electronics, antennas, materi- als, batteries, telecommunications networks, and user interfaces. By 2040, the increasing convergence of technologies, such as arti昀椀cial intelligence (AI), high-speed telecommunica- tions, and biotechnology, will be augmented Assessing technological trends and their by increased understanding of the social and broader implications is challenging because behavioral sciences to enable rapid break- timelines remain uncertain, the path from throughs and user customized applications foundational science to a transformational that are far more than the sum of their parts. application can be di昀케cult to discern, and the Taken together, these technology platforms connections between a technology and its can then provide a foundation for rapid potential broader implications can be indirect innovation while lowering the barriers to and complex. Emerging technologies also raise market entrance. myriad ethical, societal, and security ques- tions—ranging, for example, from who we are Growing Competition for Dominance. The as humans, to our impact on the environment, race for technological dominance is inextrica- to the bounds of acceptable warfare. bly intertwined with evolving geopolitics and is increasingly shaped by broader political, TRENDS ACROSS EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES economic, and societal rivalries, particularly Multiple trends are shaping the technology those associated with China’s rise. Amassing landscape of the next two decades, and while the resources to sustain broad technology new technologies will not emerge uniformly leadership, including the concentration of or predictably, they are likely to share some human talent, foundational knowledge, and common drivers and dynamics. The increasing supply chains, requires decades of long-term investment and visionary leadership. Those convergence of seemingly unrelated 昀椀elds and the rise of global competition to gener- focusing their resources today are likely to be ate and lock-in advantage are accelerating the technology leaders of 2040. In open econ- the emergence of cutting-edge technologies. omies, a mix of private e昀昀orts and partner- ships between governments, private corpo- The di昀昀usion of technological knowledge, the aggressive setting of standards to favor rations, and research programs will compete one technology solution over another, and with state-led economies, which may have ever shorter product development timelines an advantage in directing and concentrating will incentivize long-term strategy and rapid decisionmaking to avoid missteps and falling behind competitors. 56 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040