GLOBAL TRENDS2040 A MORE CONTESTED WORLD COMPARING SELECTED REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS TOTAL POPULATION 2020 a 2040 AND URBANIZATION 2,199 Million Urban (percent) 1,814 1,856 1,678 1,676 1,138 78.0 46.0 64.8 739 53.1 769 651 630 633 602 669 87.4 463 34.8 82.4 75.3 81.9 295 300 71.7 41.6 61.1 66.1 50.0 42 53 REGIONAL FORECASTS 65.4 69.3 68.2 70.2 LIFE EXPECTANCY AND MEDIAN AGEa Years Median age (years) 83.9 75.8 79.3 80.9 75.2 74.4 77.5 78.2 81.0 76.0 78.6 80.8 72.5 66.9 69.8 73.4 72.9 his section of the Global Trends report provides 20-year projections of 61.9 key demographic trends in nine regions: Latin America and Caribbean; Europe; Russia and Eurasia; Middle East and North Africa; Sub-Saharan 41.9 46.5 47.0 Africa; South Asia; Northeast Asia; Southeast Asia; and Oceania. The 20-year 37.9 36.5 40.2 39.4 36.0 36.9 31.0 31.9 33.8 30.2 33.7 projections include such demographic trends as population growth, rates of 27.5 22.1 27.5 18.9 urbanization, median age, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, non-communicable disease incidence, and religious affiliation. The graphics NON-COMMUNICABLE b also highlight the state of democracy in each region, its readiness for the DISEASE INCIDENCE digital economy, and the potential physical effects of climate change over NCD incidence per 1,000 11.5 10.9 9.8 10.8 9.0 the next 20 years. We have moderate confidence in our 20-year outlooks for 7.2 7.1 population growth, age structure, and median age because these measures 6.8 5.6 6.3 5.6 4.7 3.7 3.2 4.8 4.9 3.7 are extrapolated directly from existing fertility and mortality rates, as well as 2.9 decades of observed population trends. We have a lower degree of confi- dence in the outlooks for urbanization, GDP per capita, climate change, digital readiness, and the rise of noncommunicable disease, which can vary Latin Europe Russia and Middle East Sub-Saharan South Asia East Asia East Asia East Asia depending on human choices, introducing a greater potential for error. America and Eurasia and North Africa and Pacific: and Pacific: and Pacific: Caribbean Africa Northeast Southeast Oceania Asia Asia 120 a United Nations Population Division. | b IHME and Pardee Center University of Denver. Image | Chuttersnap / Unsplash