NEW TECHNOLOGIES FUELING SPACE COMMERCE AND SPARKING COMPETITION The space landscape in 2040 will combine emerging technology with a maturation of today’s capabili- ties to help drive commercialization and introduce new applications. Services, such as communications, navigation, and satellite imagery, will become ubiquitous offering improved capabilities, lower costs, and increasing efficiencies. The efforts of both government and commercial actors will establish new domains of space competition, particularly between the United States and China. Space Exploration Expands By 2040, an increasing number of countries will be participating in space exploration as part of internation- al cooperative efforts. By doing so, these countries will acquire national prestige, opportunities for scientific and technical advancement, and potential economic benefits. Although governments will remain the primary source of funding to support large-scale space exploration activities, the role of commercial entities will expand dramatically in most aspects of space activities. Commercial efforts will coexist, and probably cooperate, with government-funded space programs, advancing space technologies. China As A Space Power By 2040, China will be the most significant rival to the United States in space, competing on commercial, civil, and military fronts. China will continue to pursue a path of space technology development indepen- dent of that involving the United States and Europe and will have its own set of foreign partners participat- ing in Chinese-led space activities. Chinese space services, such as the Beidou satellite navigation system, will be in use around the world as an alternative to Western options. Space Supporting Government and Military Needs Enhanced space services and new technology will be available for military applications as well as civil government and commercial use. National space assets will be particularly coveted as governments remain concerned about the possibility that commercial or foreign government space services could be denied in conflict. On-Orbit Activities Become Routine By 2040, governments probably will conduct routine on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing activ- ities, enabled by advanced autonomy and additive manufacturing, to support national space systems and international efforts. Commercial companies probably will offer on-orbit services, such as repair, remote survey, relocation, refueling, and debris removal. On-orbit services will be used to upgrade satellites, ex- tend their functional lives, and allow for new types of space structures, such as extremely large or complex instruments, but they may need government support to establish the industry. AI Goes to Space AI will allow innovative use of space services by assisting with operation of large satellite constellations and space situational awareness capabilities. AI will also support the fusion and analysis of enormous volumes of high-quality, continuously collected data, driven partly by hyperconnected space and ground systems. 62 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040