portion of adults who have completed primary expectations for continued improvements. In education reached 81 percent in 2020, re昀氀ect- 2020, approximately 36 percent of the global ing a rapid increase across most regions and population was in the middle class with annual income groups since the 1960s. This level of incomes of $4,000-$40,000, up 13 percent- attainment varies across developing countries, age points from 2000, judging from a World from up to 92 percent of all adults in develop- Bank database of income surveys. The largest ing countries in Latin America, East Asia and growth in middle-class populations during Paci昀椀c, and Europe down to only 60 percent in 2000-18 (the latest survey data available) by Sub-Saharan Africa. percentage of population occurred in Russia, Expanding access to secondary education, Turkey, Thailand, Brazil, Iran, China, Mexico, however, is likely to be harder for developing and Vietnam, in descending order. countries because of its relatively higher costs, During the next two decades, the middle class higher dropout rates as some students choose is unlikely to grow at a similar pace, and devel- work over education, and cultural factors such oping-country middle-income cohorts could as early marriage that pull women away from well perceive that their progress is slowing. formal education. Educating a majority of Across many countries, the high per capita in- the workforce to the secondary school level come growth of the past 20 years is unlikely to has historically been a driver for countries to be repeated, as global productivity growth falls achieve upper-middle-income status. Cur- and the working-age population boom ends rently, this majority threshold is reached in in most regions. Global models of household developing countries in Europe and Central income suggest that, under a baseline scenar- Asia, East Asia and the Paci昀椀c, and Latin Amer- io, the middle class share of the global popula- ica, but only a quarter of the Sub-Saharan tion will largely remain stable during the next workforce has a secondary school education. twenty years, although this outcome will be Moreover, Sub-Saharan Africa is not likely to contingent on social and political dynamics. reach the threshold during the coming two East Asia, and to a lesser extent South Asia, decades because government, religious, and appear better positioned to achieve further in- other private sector investment will struggle to creases in per capita income relative to other keep up with population growth. This struggle regions, thereby reducing to some extent their will also dampen economic growth as workers, income, education, and life expectancy gap particularly those who choose early entry into with advanced economies. These regions ben- the workforce over education, will lack the e昀椀t from e昀昀ective education systems, general- skills for higher paying jobs. South Asia is mak- ly stable social networks, and competent gov- ing better progress than Sub-Saharan Africa ernance. On the other hand, some developing on this front and has the potential to reach the countries, including several in Latin America, key development threshold for secondary edu- are at high risk of falling into the middle-in- cation by around 2040. come trap in which in昀氀ation of take-home pay RISING, SHIFTING GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASSES outpaces worker productivity, leading to a Globally, the number of households falling stagnation of economic growth. The problems in Latin America’s outlook stem in part from into a broad de昀椀nition of the middle class poor infrastructure and technology adoption has soared in the past two decades, raising and inadequate education systems. 24 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040