TABLE OF GRAPHICS STRUCTURAL FORCES Demographics and Human Development Overview Graphic .............................................................................................................................. 17 Sub-Saharan Africa Likely to Dominate Population Growth in Coming Decades ..................... 19 Urbanization by Country Income Level ......................................................................................... 20 Progress on Human Development ................................................................................................. 21 Middle Class and Household Debt in the 30 Most Populous Countries, 2000 and 2018 ........25 Income Inequality by Country ......................................................................................................... 26 Environment Overview Graphic ............................................................................................................................. 31 Global Rise in Carbon Dioxide and Average Temperature .......................................................... 32 Annual Total CO2 Emissions by Region .......................................................................................... 37 Economics Overview Graphic ............................................................................................................................. 43 National Debt as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (two charts) ..................44-45 Regional Trade Agreements in Force ............................................................................................. 48 Economic Weight Shifting to Asia ................................................................................................... 51 Forecast Share of World GDP ......................................................................................................... 51 Economic Activity Forecast to Tilt to Asia ...................................................................................... 51 Technology Overview Graphic ............................................................................................................................. 55 Trajectory of Arti昀椀cial Intelligence .................................................................................................. 58 Bene昀椀ts and Risks of Advanced Biotechnology Applications ...................................................... 61 EMERGING DYNAMICS Societal Dynamics: Disillusioned, Informed, and Divided Overview Graphic ............................................................................................................................. 69 Trust Gap, 2012-21 ........................................................................................................................... 71 Selected Worldwide Religious Commitment: Prayer and Wealth ............................................... 72 Growth in Mobile Digital Communication ..................................................................................... 75 State Dynamics: Tensions, Turbulence, and Transformation Overview Graphic ............................................................................................................................. 79 Democratic Governance Declining Globally .................................................................................. 84 Government Use of Digital Technology ......................................................................................... 87 International Dynamics: Growing More Contested, Uncertain, and Con昀氀ict Prone Overview Graphic ............................................................................................................................. 91 Outlook for International Norms ................................................................................................. 101 Major Power Competition Increasing the Likelihood of Kinetic Con昀氀ict .................................103 Spectrum of Con昀氀ict ...................................................................................................................... 104 Intrastate Versus Interstate Con昀氀ict Trends ............................................................................... 105 A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 141