RIPE FOR NEW OR SHIFTING MODELS? tal consensus. Short of a new ideology, new The combination of widespread public discon- approaches—or even more combinations or blends of systems—could occur along several tent and major crises or shocks could create axes, from centralized to localized governance, conditions that are ripe for signi昀椀cant shifts from a strong state role to a strong nonstate or transformations in the models, ideologies, role, from democratic to authoritarian, from or ways of governing. Historically, ideologi- secular to religious, or from nationalist to in- cal shifts across regions have taken place at ternationalist. These shifts or transformations moments of catastrophic crisis, such as in the would spur inevitable contestation between wake of a major war or economic collapse, the constituencies holding onto the old orders because people are more willing to embrace and those embracing the new ones. bold systemic changes to address overarching problems. However, the emergence of a new The precise nature of these shifts, transforma- unifying ideology or system—on the scale of tions, or new models is uncertain and di昀케cult communism or economic liberalism—is rare. to foresee. Some potential outcomes include: Other stresses, such as another pandemic or cities or subnational regions emerging as the a major environmental catastrophe, that ex- focal point for governance if populations see pose governance shortcomings might create local governments as more trustworthy and conditions ripe for new or alternative models capable of solving problems than national to gain traction if widespread dysfunction governments; the private sector and other is sustained. nonstate actors overtaking and displacing gov- Pervasive discontent and major crises proba- ernments as the primary providers of welfare bly are necessary forcing functions for trans- and security; democracy experiencing a revival if it proves more adaptive to the coming global formations but not su昀케cient. Transforming challenges; or the world succumbing to an discontent into something new also requires authoritarian wave partially inspired by Chi- the combination of inspiring and unifying na’s model of technology-driven authoritarian leadership with compelling ideas or ideology capitalism. Moreover, compelling new gover- to build political coalitions and garner socie- nance models or ideologies that have not yet been envisioned or identi昀椀ed could emerge and take hold. A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 89 Image / Bigstock