GLOBAL TRENDS2040 A MORE CONTESTED WORLD EAST ASIA AND PACIFICNORTHEAST ASIA a Internet Users (of population)c FIVE LARGEST CITIES By population in 2035 (million)b % GDP PER CAPITA 0 55.5 100 US$ at purchasing202020402020 b 1TOKYO, JAPAN36.0power parity 2019 Digital skills of workforce ratingd TYPES OF READINESS FOR $19.4K$36.7K a 4.6 2SHANGHAI, CHINA34.3GOVERNMENTS DIGITAL ECONOMY 1 = not at all to a great extent = 7 Number of countries 3BEIJING, CHINA25.4c Information globalization ratinge RELIGION 3 Liberal Democracies 86.3 4CHONGQING, CHINA20.52020%%%% 1 = low high = 100 35.427.219.97.7Hold free and fair multiparty elections and guarantee freedom of speech and b 2019 or latest available data. 5OSAKA METROPOLITAN AREA18.32040%%%%expression. Liberal democracies also c International Telecommunication Union. 31.125.921.411.6uphold the rule of law and have d World Economic Forum. Agnostic/Chinese FolkBuddhistChristianconstraints on the executive. e KOF Globalization Index. AtheistReligion 1 Electoral Democracies f 20202040 This map illustrates likely changes in maximum temperature, aa Hold free and fair multiparty elections drought, and hurricane/cyclone activity in 2040—compared to AGE STRUCTUREAGE STRUCTUREand guarantee freedom of speech and expression, but do not uphold the 1980-2005 baseline—given conditions specified by the Under 1515-6465+Under 1515-6465+the rule of law and/or do not have United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change constraints on the executive. (IPCC) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. 17.1% 69.5% 13.4%14.0% 61.3% 24.8% While several different temperature measures could have been 2040 used, maximum temperature on the hottest day of the year was 0 TEMPERATURE, chosen given the severe human, agricultural, and economic costs MALEAge FEMALEMALE Age FEMALEElectoral Autocracies DROUGHT, AND associated with heat waves. When combined with longer 80+80+ Hold elections but they are not free, fair, HURRICANE droughts, these effects are multiplied. 75-7975-79 and multiparty, and/or the government ACTIVITY 70-7470-74 does not guarantee freedom of speech 65-6965-69 and expression. 60-6460-64 0 2.5 55-5955-59 Increase in the hottest day 50-5450-54 2 temperature, Celsius 45-4945-49 Closed Autocracies 40-4440-44 Do not even hold multiparty 35-3935-39 elections for the chief executive. 30-3430-34 Increase in the longest annual 25-2925-29 drought by 2.5 days or more 20-2420-24 a Varieties of Democracy, 2020. The 15-1915-19 number of countries included in this 10-1410-14 study may not equal the number listed f Data: Clemens Schwingshackl, Jana Sillman, and the Centre for 5-95-9 separately under “Selected Regions Increase in major International Climate and Environmental Research. 0-40-4 and Countries. hurricane activity Graphic: Pardee Center University of Denver. 806040200020406080806040200020406080 MillionMillion abc United Nations Population Division. | Oxford Economics. | World Religion Database. 135