GLOBAL TRENDS2040 A MORE CONTESTED WORLD LATIN AMERICAAND CARIBBEAN Internet Users (of population)c a FIVE LARGEST CITIES 55.2% By population in 2035 (million) b 0 100 GDP PER CAPITA US$ at purchasing 2020 2040 Digital skills of workforce ratingd 2020 b 1 MEXICO CITY, MEXICO 25.4 power parity 2019 3.4 $13.4K $18.9K TYPES OF READINESS FOR 1 = not at all to a great extent = 7 a 2 GOVERNMENTS DIGITAL ECONOMY SAO PAULO, BRAZIL 24.5 Number of countries Information globalization ratinge 83.7 3 BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA 17.1 RELIGIONc 3 1 = low high = 100 Liberal Democracies b 4 RIO DE JANIERO, BRAZIL 14.8 2020 % % % 2019 or latest available data. 92.1 4.1 3.8 Hold free and fair multiparty elections c International Telecommunication Union. and guarantee freedom of speech and d World Economic Forum. 5 LIMA, PERU 13.0 2040 % % % expression. Liberal democracies also e KOF Globalization Index. 90.9 5.3 3.7 uphold the rule of law and have Catholic Agnostic/ Other constraints on the executive. Atheist f This map illustrates likely changes in maximum temperature, Electoral Democracies 16 drought, and hurricane/cyclone activity in 2040—compared to 2020 2040 the 1980-2005 baseline—given conditions specified by the a a Hold free and fair multiparty elections United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AGE STRUCTURE AGE STRUCTURE and guarantee freedom of speech (IPCC) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. and expression, but do not uphold While several different temperature measures could have been Under 15 15-64 65+ Under 15 15-64 65+ the rule of law and/or do not have 2040 used, maximum temperature on the hottest day of the year was % % % % % % constraints on the executive. chosen given the severe human, agricultural, and economic costs 23.9 67.2 8.9 18.8 65.9 15.2 TEMPERATURE, associated with heat waves. When combined with longer DROUGHT, AND droughts, these effects are multiplied. MALE Age FEMALE Electoral Autocracies 5 HURRICANE MALE Age FEMALE ACTIVITY 80+ 80+ Hold elections but they are not free, fair, 75-79 75-79 and multiparty, and/or the government 70-74 70-74 does not guarantee freedom of speech 0 2.5 65-69 65-69 and expression. Increase in the hottest day 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 temperature, Celsius 50-54 50-54 1 45-49 45-49 Closed Autocracies 40-44 40-44 Do not even hold multiparty Increase in the longest annual 35-39 35-39 elections for the chief executive. drought by 2.5 days or more 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 a Varieties of Democracy, 2020. The 15-19 15-19 number of countries included in this Increase in major 10-14 10-14 study may not equal the number listed 5-9 5-9 separately under “Selected Regions hurricane activity 0-4 0-4 and Countries. 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 Million Million f Data: Clemens Schwingshackl, Jana Sillman, and the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research. 122 a United Nations Population Division. | b Oxford Economics. | c World Religion Database. Graphic: Pardee Center University of Denver.