otentially slower economic Pgrowth in coming years and smaller gains in human in 15 of 28 countries polled are pessimistic that they and their families will be better o昀昀 development in many countries in 昀椀ve years, an average increase of 5 percent from the previous year. Less than a quarter of are likely to exacerbate distrust those polled in France, Germany, and Japan, of institutions and formal for example, believe they will be better o昀昀 in 2025. In coming years, this pessimism is sources of authority for some likely to spread in developing countries with large youthful populations but with slowing members of the public. progress in eradicating poverty and meet- ing human development needs, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa. RISING PESSIMISM, WAVERING TRUST Potentially slower economic growth in coming Global and local challenges, including econom- years and smaller gains in human develop- ic strains, demographic shifts, extreme weath- ment in many countries are likely to exacer- er events, and rapid technological change, are bate distrust of institutions and formal sources increasing perceptions of physical and social of authority for some members of the public. insecurity for much of the world’s population. Trust in governments and institutions, which The COVID-19 pandemic is intensifying these is highly dependent on perceptions of fairness economic and social challenges. Many people, and e昀昀ectiveness, has been consistently low for the past decade, particularly in middle- to particularly those who are bene昀椀ting less than others in their societies, are increasingly pes- high-income countries. In a 2020 study of 16 simistic about their own prospects, frustrated developed countries by Edelman, the portion with government performance, and believe of the mass public trusting government since governments are favoring elites or pursuing 2012 never exceeded 45 percent, and among the wrong policies. The economic growth and Organization for Economic Cooperation and rapid improvements in health, education, and Development (OECD) economies, public trust human development of the past few decades in government fell in more than half of coun- tries between 2006 and 2016, according to have begun to level o昀昀 in some regions, and separate public opinion polling by Gallup. Of people are sensitive to the increasing gap 11 geographically diverse countries analyzed between winners and losers in the globalized by Edelman during the COVID-19 pandemic, economy and are seeking redress from their pub-lic trust in government increased an governments. Approximately 1.5 billion people average of 6 percentage points between moved up into the middle class in the past few January and May 2020, and then it declined an decades, but some are beginning to fall back, average of 5 percentage points between May including in advanced economies. 2020 and January 2021 as governments failed Public opinion polls repeatedly have shown to contain the coronavirus. increasing pessimism about the future in Trust is not uniform across societies. Globally, countries of all types around the world, but trust in institutions among the informed pub- especially in advanced and middle-income lic—de昀椀ned as people who are college edu- economies. According to the 2020 Edelman cated, are in the top 25 percent of household Trust Barometer, the majority of respondents 70 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040