Pictet Group Oxford Climate Change Study
Climate chane nswers to common uestions Cameron Hepburn Moritz Schwarz December 2020 Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Enironment 1
Smith School of Enterprise Institute for New Economic and the Environment / Thinking at the Oxford Institute for New Economic Martin School (INET Oxford) Thinking, University of The Institute for New Economic Oxford Thinking at the Oxford Martin School The Smith School of Enterprise and ( INET Oxford) is a multi-disciplinary the Environment ( research centre dedicated to SSEE) was estab- lished with a benefaction by the applying leading-edge thinking from Smith family in 2008 to tackle major the social and physical sciences to environmental challenges by global economic challenges. bringing public and private enter- INET Oxford has over 75 affili- prise together with the University ated scholars from disciplines that of Oxford’s world-leading teaching include economics, mathematics, and research. computer science, physics, biology, Research at the Smith School ecology, geography, psychology, shapes business practices, gov- sociology, anthropology, philosophy, ernment policy and strategies to history, political science, public achieve net-zero emissions and policy, business, and law working sustainable development. We offer on its various programmes. INET innovative evidence-based solutions Oxford is a research centre within to the environmental challenges the University of Oxford’s Martin facing humanity over the coming School, a community of over 300 decades. We apply expertise in scholars working on the major economics, finance, business and challenges of the 21st century. It law to tackle environmental and has partnerships with nine aca- social challenges in six areas: water, demic departments and colleges. climate, energy, biodiversity, food and the circular economy. SSEE has several significant ex- ternal research partnerships and Business Fellows, bringing experts from industry, consulting firms, and related enterprises who seek to address major environmental chal- lenges to the University of Oxford. We offer a variety of open enrolment and custom Ex ecutive Education programmes that cater to partici- pants from all over the world. We also provide independent research and advice on environmental strategy, corporate governance, public policy and long-term innovation. For more information on SSEE please visit: http://www. smithschool.ox.ac.uk 2
mid the onoin debate about climate chane inestors often fail to appreciate the sheer weiht of scientific eidence attestin to humanit’s impact on the planet‚ Euall the miht not ƒnow where further re„ search is reuired before firm conclusions can be reached about how best to contain or reerse lobal warmin‚ …his paper – authored b Oxford ‡niersit and spon„ sored b ˆictet – seeƒs to ie a brief but firm roundin on the current state of ƒnowlede about climate chane its implications and what sort of solutions miht be possible‚ Šritten in thouhtful clear and unemotie lanuae b ˆrofessor Cameron Hepburn and Moritz Schwarz of the uniersit’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Eniron„ ment it is an important resource for those of us who are not climate chane specialists‚ ‹t addresses seeral contentions – that climate chane is oreword not happenin or that if it is it will be mild – or that Ž in an eent humans are not causin it‚ …he authors also address uestions about the impact of climate chane – whether there miht be benefits the scale of liƒel damae and humans’ abilit to adapt‚ ‹t’s a document we at ˆictet are proud to hae spon„ sored‚ Še understand that climate chane affects all of our futures whereer we are in the world whateer our standin‚ …he better we all understand the settled facts the better we can not onl plan for the future but chane its course for the better‚ Laurent Ramsey Manain ˆartner of ˆictet Œroup
‡ncertaint about climate science and economics poses challenes for business and finance‚ ’easonable and intel„ lient people freuentl asƒ us for a reference document to set out what is ƒnown and not ƒnown about climate chane includin research that is sometimes contrar to preailin societal beliefs if onl to aoid debates about areas that are settled and instead to direct attention to the areas where further research is aluable‚ Še hae structured this document into nine areas of Oeriew doubt commonl expressed about climate science and eco„ nomics each of which is broƒen down into points of contention‚ Še also hihliht ƒe facts and estimates in which scholars hae hih leels of confidence‚ Each section beins with a common challene about climate science and economics expressed as a uotation‚ Cameron Hepburn and Moritz Schwarz ffiliations Smith School of Enterprise and the Enironment ‹nstitute for “ew Economic …hinƒin at the Oxford Martin School Climate Econometrics “uffield Collee ‡niersit of Oxford ‘
Levels of doubt in the science and economics Type of doubt Underlying question Specific challenges doubt re impact questions about existence 1 “Climate c hane or extent is not happenin” Lower 2 “Š armin will be er modest” questions about source 3 “Humans are not causin climate chane” questions about impact 4 “…here are bene fits from climate chane” 5 “Damaes from climate c hane will be small or uncertain” 6 “Humans will be able Degree of doubt to adapt” doubt re mitigation response is futile 7 “…here’ s no point in reducin emissions Earth will ƒeep warmin anwa” response is costly 8 “…he costs of reducin emissions are er hih” response is 9 “Other countries are not unequally shared plain their part” Higher ”
1 “Climate chane is not happenin”
Dead trees in flooded forestlands as a result of dam construction on the Rio Araguari, approximately 50 miles north of Macapa, Brazil, 2017.
— t “The world has not become warmer. n Any apparent temperature increase is e xt due to adjustments to the data” r e e o c …he aerae lobal surface temperatures hae risen about n e t s 1°C from pre„industrial leels‚! …here are multiple i x lines of eidence for this warmin and the manitude of t e u o warmin is unprecedented oer periods ranin from b s a decades to millennia‚ …he eidence is clear that the atmo„ n o i t sphere and the oceans hae warmed sea leels hae s e u risen and the amounts of snow and ice hae decreased‚@ q — ll mašor lobal surface temperature data sets hae been subšect to historic data adšustments‚ …hese adšustments hae been made to correct for moes in monitorin stations an increase in the number of stations instrument chanes ›e‚‚ how temperature oer the oceans is mea„ suredœ and chanes in the time of obseration‚ …emperature measurements would be less accurate without these adšustments‚# — Some claim that the strenth of the warmin trend is a result of data reisions that hae adšusted up recent land temperatures while also adšustin them down for the period earl in the 1ž00s resultin in a stroner warmin trend‚$ Howeer data adšustments hae also been 1 nasa 201ž 2 ipcc 201‘ Hausfather et al‚ 201Ÿ ‘ Eƒwurzel 201¡ —
made on ocean surface temperatures to account for chanes t n in measurement techniues‚ …hese adšustments hae if e xt anthin resulted in a reduction of the oerall rate r e e o of lobal warmin compared to the raw data as is shown c n e in figure 1‚ t s i x figure 1 t e Œlobal …emperature nomalies u o from a rane of data sets b as well as the raw data s a 1.0°C n o nasa i t s Hadle¥uea e noaa u q 0.5°C ¢erƒele Cowtan¦Ša ’aw Data Note: Values with respect 0°C to a 1961–1990 baseline. Source: Hausfather, 2017 -0.5°C -1.0°C 1880 1920 1960 2000 2016 — ’esearchers hae found that these adšustments do nothin to undermine the case for the existence of a warmin trend‚ ‹rrespectie of the adšustments the increase in lobal surface temperature swamps the noise from these well„ studied factors relatin to measurement‚% — “There has been a 15year pause in temperature increases” …he rate of increase in lobal aerae temperature appeared to slow in some records between 1žž— and 2012‚ …his pause or ‘hiatus’ was the subšect of reat controers and oer 200 peer„reiewed articles in scientific šournals‚^ ” ¢rohan et al‚ 200Ÿ Ÿ £ewandowsƒ et al‚ 201— ž
— ‡pdated ocean temperature measurements& suest that t n the rise in lobal temperatures has not paused in fact e xt which is corroborated b further eidence‚* r e e o — c n e t s Šarmin increased aain from 201 to 201— drien part„ i x l b the lare but natural 201” to 201Ÿ El “iño ccle‚( t e u o …his hihlihts the fallac of cherr„picƒin an arbitrar b s a time rane to dispute the widel„accepted stance that n o i t lon„term the warmin trend drien b human carbon s e u emissions is not sustainable‚ q — s figure 2 demonstrates aerae temperatures fluctu„ ate from ear to ear but show a clear lobal warmin trend oer the past centur‚ figure 2 Œlobal Mean Estimates based on £and and Ocean Data of …emperature ›1——0–201žœ 1.2°C ” ear £owess Smoothin nnual Data 0.6°C Note: Values with respect to a 1961–1990 baseline. Source: NASA, 2020 0°C -0.6°C -1.2°C 1880 1920 1960 2000 2019 — “t is w armcold today. Therefore climate chane is is not happenin” Climate is the thirt„ear aerae of the weather‚ …he weather on an particular da is not an indicator of rele„ ance to climate chane trends‚!) ¡ §arl et al‚ 201” — Hausfather et al‚ 201¡ ž noaa 201— 10 wmo 201ž 10
— t “There is no trend in n how often etreme events occur” e xt …here is substantial reional ariation when considerin r e e o c extreme eents‚ Šhether one particular reion or cit n e t s has more or fewer extreme eents is not indicatie of lobal i x extreme eent dnamics‚ Climate chane increases t e u o the risƒs of extreme rainfall drouht and floods in some b s a reions while simultaneousl decreasin them n o i t in others‚!! s e u — q Œenerall a warmer planet implies more ambient ener which amplifies risƒ factors for man extreme eents‚ warmer planet increases the rate of eapotranspiration which has a direct effect on the freuenc and intensit of drouhts‚ Similarl a warmer atmosphere can hold more water apour increasin the potential for extreme rain„ fall eents‚ — n indiidual heatwae flood drouht or other extreme eent does not proide “proof” of climate chane‚ — Howeer scientists are increasinl usin methods to estimate how human actiit influences the probabilit of some extreme weather eents occurrin‚!@ Out of the ”” published studies analsed b Carbon¢rief!# ›as of pril 2020œ ¡ž hae found a clear human influence on extreme weather eents‚!$ Of course it is important to note that there is a certain selection bias with reard to which extreme eents are analsed raisin the possibilit that a priori suspicion of anthropoenic influence plaed a role in which eents were selected‚ 1 1 Otto et al‚ 201— 1 2 Otto et al‚ 201Ÿª “ational cademies 201Ÿ 1 Carbon¢rief ›2020aœ 1‘ Otto et al‚ 2012ª Stott et al‚ 201Ÿ 11
— …he ipcc Climate Chane Snthesis ’eport!% finds that t n • ‹t is er liƒel that the number of cold das and e xt nihts has decreased and the number of warm das r e e o and nihts has increased loball‚ c n e • ‹t is liƒel that the freuenc of heatwaes has increased t s i in lare parts of Europe sia and ustralia‚ x t e • ‹t is liƒel that human influence has more than doubled u o the liƒelihood of heatwaes in some locations‚ b s a n o • …here is medium confidence that the obsered warm„ i t s in has increased heat„related human mortalit in e u some reions‚ q • ’ecentl detected increasin trends in extreme pre„ cipitation and dischare in some catchments impl reater risƒs of reional floodin ›medium confidenceœ‚ • ‹t is liƒel that extreme sea leels ›as experienced for example in storm suresœ hae increased since 1ž¡0 bein mainl a result of risin mean sea leel‚ — “Lea ed emails reveal that scientists are manipulatin data” Email exchanes amon colleaues at the ‡niersit of East nlia in 200ž were interpreted b some people as eidence of collusion between scientists to hide a decline in real lobal temperatures‚ number of independent inestiations into the matter were launched from differ„ ent countries‚ …hese inestiations found as follows • …he “ational Science Žoundation!^ concluded “no research misconduct or other matter raised b the arious reulations and laws discussed aboe this case is closed‚” 1” ipcc 201‘ 1 Ÿ “ational Science Žoundation 2011 p‚” 12
• n ‹nternational Scientific ssessment ˆanel set up t n b the ‡niersit of East nlia in consultation e xt with the ’oal Societ!& found “no eidence of an r e e o deliberate scientific malpractice in an of the worƒ c n e of the Climatic ’esearch ‡nit‚” t s i • Žinal ‹nestiation ’eport b the ˆennslania State x t e ‡niersit!* “there is no substance to the alleation u o aainst Dr‚ Michael E‚ Mann‚” b s a n o • ‡nited States Enironmental ˆrotection enc!( i t s found “this was simpl a candid discussion of e u scientists worƒin throuh issues that arise in com„ q pilin and presentin lare complex data sets‚” 1¡ Oxburh et al‚ 2010 p‚ ” 1— ssmann et al‚ 2010 p‚ 1ž 1ž ‡nited States Enironmental ˆrotection enc 2010 p‚1 1
2 “armin will be very modest”
A marooned boat rests on the bottom of Curuai Lake, which was almost completely dry during one of the worst droughts ever recorded in the Amazon region, 2005.
— t “armin miht end up n bein 1.5°‚” e xt Šarmin since 1—Ÿ1–1——0 is now around 1°C‚! r e e o c n — e t s i ssumin a path of lobal emissions based on current leels x t e of effort estimates suest lobal temperature could u o rise b around 2‚ž°C ›estimated rane 2‚1°C – ‚ž°Cœ b the b s a n o end of the centur‚@ i t s e — u q §eepin warmin to less than 1‚”°C is possible dependin upon the climate response and upon human actions # but ien existin fossil infrastructure it currentl appears unliƒel that such a oal would be achieed without mašor additional effort b oernments‚$ — …he ipcc Special ’eport on Œlobal Šarmin of 1‚”°C states “ˆathwas limitin lobal warmin to 1‚”°C with no or limited oershoot would reuire rapid and far„ reachin transitions in ener land urban and infrastruc„ ture ›includin transport and buildinsœ and industrial sstems (high confidence)‚ …hese sstem transitions are unprecedented in terms of scale but not necessaril in terms of speed”‚% — Žor a reater than ŸŸ per cent chance of ƒeepin warmin to under 1‚”°C net human emissions could continue at present leels for onl a decade or so and then immediatel hae to drop to net zero to stabilize temperatures — near net„zero emissions are reuired to stabilize temperatures at an leel‚^ lternatiel net emissions miht be reduced linearl to zero oer a period of two decades or so‚ 1 nasa 201ž 2 Climate ction …racƒer 2020 Millar et al‚ 201¡ ‘ ˆfeiffer et al‚ 201— ” Masson„Delmotte et al‚ 201— p‚1” Ÿ Matthews ¦ Caldeira 200— 1Ÿ
— Žor a reater than ŸŸ per cent chance of ƒeepin warmin t n under 2°C net human emissions could continue at pres„ e xt ent leels for ¬2” ears after which the would immediatel r e e o need to fall to net zero‚ lternatiel net emissions miht c n e be reduced linearl to zero oer a period of four decades t s i or so‚& x t e u — o b s a …here is sinificant uncertaint in these estimates ›illus„ n o i t trated in figure 3 belowœ‚ s e u q figure 3 Human induced warmin and cumulatie co2 emissions 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 rcp Historical 3.0°C cmip” rcp8.5 cmip” rcp8.5 cmip” rane Hadcrut‘ tas 900 ›correctedœ ar5 tcre 1.5°C 1Ÿ–—‘® rane ar5 tcre emperature changesince 1850–1 –Ÿ¡® rane T ar5 tcre median Note: TCRE refers to the transient climate response to cumulative carbon 2010 2017 emissions. tas refers to 0.0°C Near-Surface Air Tem- Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions since 1876 (GtCO2) perature. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Source: Reproduced from Rogelj et al., 2018. With thanks to Dr Chris Smith, ¡ Millar et al‚ 201¡ University of Leeds 1¡
3 “Humans are not causin climate chane”
Concentrated animal feeding operations, like this one in Agua Boa, Mato Grosso, Brazil, during August 2008, are environmentally de structive and require the use of more medications and hormones for food production. Brazil has a cattle herd of over 225 million (as of 2017).
— e “The climate has always been chanin c and well before humans r ou s were around” bout a …he Earth’s climate has alwas been chanin‚ Earth has s n o been in a lon„term coolin trend for the past ”0 million i t s ears‚! Howeer oer the past ‘20 000 ears ntarctic e air temperatures ›in the ¯ostoƒ ice coresœ are estimated to qu hae been at arious times between ¬—°C cooler and ¬2°C w armer than toda‚@ — …hese chanes in the Earth’s aerae temperature hae had eoraphical conseuences‚ Žor instance in the last lacial maximum ›21 000 ears aoœ lobal aerae tem„ peratures were „¡°C lower than the are now with rctic ice sheets coerin most of ¢ritain and extendin down to “orthern Œerman‚# — Human ciilization has deeloped in a stable and relatiel warm climate epoch since the last lacial maximum ›the Holoceneœ‚ — …hese temperature ariations were caused b arious lon„ term eophsical dnamics such as chanes in the Earth’s orbit and tilt but the were occurrin at timescales seeral orders of manitude slower than the chanes we hae been obserin in the Earth’s climate oer the past two centuries‚ …he current rate of warmin ›post„industrial reolutionœ is historicall unprecedented‚$ 1 Hansen ¦ Sato 2012 2 ˆetit et al‚ 1žžž Clarƒ ¦ Mix 2002 ‘ Šaters et al‚ 201Ÿ 20
— e “e don’t now how emissions c are affectin temperatures” r ou s Carbon dioxide traps infrared radiation such as that bout a emitted from the surface of Earth‚ …his can be measured% s n o and has been confirmed b decades of laborator mea„ i t s surements‚^ …he precise relationship between total co2 e emissions and total warmin is uncertain but we ƒnow qu the relationship is rouhl linear at current co2 concen„ trationsª the uncertaint is shown in the coloured plume in figure 3‚ — ‡ncertaint arises from an inexact understandin of ari„ ous feedbacƒ mechanisms includin how cloud formation and moement is affected b temperature and ice ersa‚ ¢ut contrar to some speculation natural cloud ariation has not caused climate chane‚& — Žurther uncertaint is caused b the amount of total incomin solar ener absorbed b the Earth‚ …hese include chanes in the coerae of ice sheets* and eetation‚( — “ncrease in temperature causes increases in co2 not the other way around” …here is a marƒed correlation between temperature and co2 concentrations‚ ²et correlation is not causation‚ — ¢ecause co2 traps heat ›see aboeœ phsics suests that more atmospheric co2 would cause increased tem„ peratures‚ lon these lines the hih surface temperature of ¯enus is thouht to hae been caused b a reenhouse effect drien b er hih co2 concentrations‚!) ” Žoote 1—”Ÿª …ndall 1—Ÿ1 Ÿ °oƒimäƒi 200ž ¡ Dessler 2011ª ¢orenstein 2011 — Clarƒ et al‚ 1žžž ž Cox et al‚ 2000 10 ˆollacƒ et al‚ 1ž—0 21
— Causation in the reerse direction ›increases in tem„ e c perature increasin co2œ is actiel researched but would r ou s enerall onl occur oer astl loner timescales‚ ‹t is noteworth that in ice core records temperatures often bout a s increased before co2 concentrations started to rise‚!! n o i t — s e …he current status is that there is eidence of dual cau„ qu salit — an increase in co2 can increase temperature and ice ersa!@‚ ¢ut it is ƒnown that human emissions of co2 are currentl driin warmin rather than warmin driin co2 because the ratios of different tpes ›iso„ topesœ of carbon ›!#C to !@Cœ found in fossil fuels!# are reflected in atmospheric co2 which would not be the case if causalit were reersed or the increase in atmo„ spheric co2 was caused b natural processes ›see belowœ‚ — “„uman co2 emissions are insinificant compared to naturallyoccurrin processes” …he proportion of different tpes ›isotopesœ of carbon emitted from fossil fuels is different to that occurrin in the natural carbon ccle‚ …his enables scientists to be sure that almost all of the recent increases in co2 in the atmosphere are from old fossil carbon emitted b human actiities‚!$ — …here are man natural sources and sinƒs of co2‚ “atural flows of co2 between the atmosphere and oceans are much larer than fossil carbon emissions‚ Howeer the natural sources and sinƒs are finel balanced and 11 ¢arnola 200ª 1 ³ua et al‚ 1žž2ª Caillon 200ª Žischer £ein ¦ Hesshaimer et al‚ 1žžž 2000 12 £orius et al‚ 1žž0ª 1‘ £ein ¦ Hesshaimer Martin 200”ª Cuffe 2000 ¦ ¯imeux 2001 22
human„enerated emissions from fossil carbon are lare e c compared to the net impact from natural sources !% r ou s meanin that co2 is accumulatin in the atmosphere ›see figure 4œ‚ bout a s n — o i t s …he warmin oceans will also absorb co2 more slowl as e their concentration of dissoled co2 rises‚!^ qu — “co2 levels fluctuate naturally anyway” …here is a natural annual oscillation in atmospheric co2 leels caused b the seasonal rowth and recedin of eetation!&‚ …hese annual oscillations are small compared to the trend as shown in figure 4 below‚ …here is also an oscillation in co2 leels between interlacial periods but aain these oscillations occur at much slower timescales than the chanes obsered toda‚!* figure 4 Measured concentrations of co2 showin annual oscillations 450ppm Scripps Institute, 2020. 400ppm 350ppm 300ppm 250ppm 1960 1980 2000 2020 1” Žalƒowsƒi 2000 1Ÿ Sarmiento et al‚ 1žž—ª Mc§inle et al‚ 201¡ 1¡ §eelin 1žŸ0 1 — Martin 1žž0ª ´en 200 2
— e “Any warmin is due to the sun c and other natural drivers r ou s not human co2” bout a s “atural factors affect the climate‚ n o i t — s e ¯ariation in natural factors liƒe olcanic eruptions and solar qu ariabilit does not explain the warmin trend obsered since the industrial reolution‚ — Scientific models of lobal temperature chane attribute 1‚01°C of warmin between 1—”0–¡ž and Ma 201¡ to human emissions ›”–ž” per cent confidence interal is µ0‚—¡ to µ1‚22 °Cœ‚ Essentiall all the obsered warmin is attributed to human actiitiesª natural factors such as olcanoes hae in fact slihtl decreased the net amount of warmin‚!( — Solar fluctuations hae contributed to obsered warmin since 1ž”0‚ Howeer the manitude of the contribution is small about 0‚1°C at most‚@) …he increase in lobal surface temperature has been larest since 1ž—0 — a time durin which solar actiit has been decreasin‚@! 1ž Haustein et al‚ 201¡ 20 £ean ¦ ’ind 200—ª Žoster ¦ ’ahmstorf 2011 21 £ocƒwood 200— 2‘
— …he obsered increase in temperature is predominantl e c drien b human rather than natural factors ›see r ou s figure ”ª see ¢loomber@@ for a dnamic representationœ‚ bout a figure 5 s Contributions of human and n o natural factors to warmin i t s 1.8°C e ll forcins qu Human “atural 1.2°C Œreenhouse ases …emperature …emperature smoothed 0.6°C Note: Values with respect to a 1880–1910 baseline. The smoothed tempera ture series uses a Lowess smoothing over 5 years. 0°C See Bloomberg Business Week, … for a dynamic representation. Source: Temperature from NASA, 2020 and Forcings -0.6°C from Miller et al., 2014. 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2019 22 ¢loomber ¢usiness Šeeƒ 2”
4 “…here are benefits from climate chane”
Remnants of Amazon rainforest line an agricultural field in Mato Grosso, Brazil, in 2008.
— t “‡ore co2 will help trees row and c a will reen the ˆarth” p m t i u Hiher co2 concentrations directl increase plant rowth o b inorin other climate impacts‚! Howeer the biosphere s a n o is prošected to be seerel impacted b a chanin climate i t s possibl reducin its oerall capacit to absorb co2 from e u the atmosphere‚@ q — ’esearch shows that climate chane has oerall had a ne„ atie impact on crop ields # in part due to increased heat and water stresses $ and in part as a result of decreasin biodiersit‚% …his trend is prošected to continue with a ¬¡® net ield reduction for staple crops ›wheat rice maize and sobeanœ for eer 1°C temperature increase‚^ — “‰pportunities will open up in northern latitudes” s rctic ice melts the “orthwest ˆassae opens cuttin the shippin distance from sia to Europe b ¡ 000 ƒm‚ — “ew fossil reseres ma be recoerable in the rctic as the ice retreats but these will be expensie to exploit relatie to existin fossil reseres‚& — More arable land is liƒel to be aailable in ’ussia Canada and “orthern ‡nited States‚* Howeer decreases in aricultural land in the lobal south ( and Central merica will outweih increases in the lobal north’s aricultural iabilit creatin risƒs of food shortaes and international securit challenes‚!) 1 §imball 201Ÿ Ÿ ´hao et al‚ 201¡ 2 §örner 2000 ¡ Emmerson ¦ £ahn Schleussner et al‚ 2012 201— — ´abel et al‚ 201‘ ‘ £obell et al‚ 2011 ž ‹m et al‚ 201¡ ” ¢élaner ¦ ˆillin 10 nato, 215 201ž 2—
— …here will be fewer deaths of those ulnerable to extreme t c a cold in the “orthern Hemisphere‚ Howeer a reater p m number of deaths caused b heatwaes elsewhere will offset t i u o the numbers saed b warmer northern winters!! b a b s a considerable deree‚ …he net impacts will ar accordin n o i t to reion‚!@ s e u — q Šarmer winters in northern reions will reduce ener demand for heatin b ‘ per cent b 2100 but would be more than offset b a ¡2 per cent increase in coolin demand elsewhere‚!# 11 Œasparrini et‚ al‚ 201¡ 12 ¯icedo„Cabrera et al‚ 201— 1 ‹saac ¦ ¯an ¯uuren 200ž 2ž
5 “Damaes from climate chane will be small or uncertain”
Aerial view of damage from Hurricane Charley suffered by a mobile home park in Punta Gorda, Florida, 2004.
— t “armin by Š°‚ c a isn’t very sinificant” p m t i u Œlobal mean warmin hides reional ariation and lare o b shifts in extreme eents‚ Elements of the climate sstem are s a n o capable not onl of stead radual chane oer lon i t s periods but also of rapid non„linear chane when critical e u thresholds are passed‚ Some ma result in an abrupt further q temperature increase and some ma be irreersible‚! — …here is uncertaint oer when or at what deree of lobal temperature rise these tippin points miht be triered howeer eidence suests that some ma be reached once warmin rises to 2°C aboe pre„industrial leels and man more will at °C of warmin‚@ — Scientists are worƒin on identifin earl warnin sinals for such tippin points‚# — …he manitude of impact of some of these chanes is esti„ mated to be er hih‚ Žor example a complete thaw of permafrost carbon stores could release up to ” ”00 ia„ tonnes of co2 or rouhl twice the total amount of co2 in the atmosphere toda‚$ 1 ¢athian et al‚ 201— 2 Masson„Delmotte et al‚ 201— £enton et al‚ 2012 ‘ Shurr et al‚ 201” 2
— ‹n addition to the risƒ of non„linear thresholds and tip„ t c a pin points a set of risƒs is set out in figure from the p m Chief ’isƒ Officer Žorum ›cro Žorum 201žœ‚% t i u o b figure s a ‹ndicatie summar of n o possible impacts for different leels of warmin i t b 2100 ›chane s 201— leelsœ s e u 1.5°C 2°C 3°C 5°C q ‹hysical impacts ! ! !! !!! Sea„leel rise 0.3–0.6m 0.4–0.8m 0.4–0.9m 0.5–1.7m Coastal assets to defend $10.2tn $11.7tn $14.6tn $27.5tn Chance of ice„free rctic summer 1 in 30 1 in 6 2 in 3 (63%) ≈100% …ropical cclones ›fewer but stroner and wetter stormsœ – Cateor 1–” storms -1% -6% -16% Unknown – Cateor ‘–” storms +24% +16% +28% +55% – …otal rainfall durin storms +6% +12% +18% +35% Das of extreme rainfall +17% +36% +70% +150% ‹ncrease in land area affected x1.4 x1.6 x2.0 x2.6 b wildfire ’ise in number of people affected x22 x27 x80 x300 b extreme heatwaes £and area susceptible to malaria +12% +18% +29% +46% ˆconomic impacts ! ! !! !!! Œlobal gdp impact ›201— ¸—0tnœ -10% -13% -23% -45% Stranded assets Transition: Mixed: some Physical: fossil fuel assets fossil fuel assets uninhabitable (supply, power, mothballed, zones, agri- transport, some physical culture, water - industry) stranding intense industry, lost tourism etc Žood suppl Changing diets, 24% yield loss 60% yield loss, some yield loss 60% demand in tropics increase ‹nsurance opportunities New low-car- Increasing de- Minimal: reces- bon assets and mand to manage sion, tensi- infrastructure growing risks ons, high and investment un predictable ” cro Žorum 201ž (e.g.CCS) risks Source: CRO Forum, 2019, p.5
— t “The economic impacts are small” c a p ‹t is possible that the economic impacts of climate chane m t i u will be sinle„diit percentaes of gdp but it is also o b possible that the economic impacts will be extremel dam„ s a n o ain‚^ Œien the prospect of catastrophic impacts i t s economists conclude that it is optimal to hede these‚& e u q — Œloball protectin coasts with dƒes has been estimated to reuire annual inestment and maintenance costs of usd12–¡1 billion b 2100 which is much smaller than the lobal damaes that can be aoided with these measures‚* — ‹t is liƒel that there will be sinificant effects on aricul„ ture because the tpe of ecosstem of an estimated ‘ per cent of the world’s land area will chane at 1‚”°C of warm„ in and 1 per cent at 2°C‚( n estimated 1— per cent of insects 1Ÿ per cent of plants and — per cent of ertebrates are prošected to lose oer half of their climaticall deter„ mined eoraphic rane at 2°C warmin‚!) Howeer some prošections enisae ‘peaƒ farmland’ demand in the comin decades drien b increasin efficiencies and declinin population rowth‚!! — t ‘ °C of lobal warmin humid heatwaes with apparent temperatures oer ”” °C would be expected eer second ear‚!@ — ‹f the increase in lobal aerae temperature exceeds Ÿ°C wet„bulb temperatures will bein to permanentl exceed sƒin temperature in some areas of the lobe ›i‚e‚ the human bod will lose its abilit to shed heat as sweatin becomes Ÿ ¢urƒe et al‚ 201”ª — Hinƒel et al‚ 201‘ ˆretis et al‚ 201— ž Hoeh„Œuldber ¡ £itterman 201ª et al‚ 201— Daniel et al‚ 201Ÿ 1 0 Šarren et al‚ 201— 1 1 usubel et al‚ 201 1 2 ’usso et al‚ 201¡ ‘
ineffectie aboe those temperaturesœ precludin an out„ t c a door actiities in those areas‚ temperature rise exceedin p m 10°C would expose most of the lare populated areas t i u o of Earth to these conditions‚!# b s a n — o i t s Outdoor labour productiit appears to be neatiel e u affected well before people succumb to heat stroƒe‚!$ q — “‚limate chane has little to do with nearterm business ris s” Emissions of co2 accumulate in the atmosphere oer time implin that climate chane inoles reater impacts in the far term than the near term‚ Man of the larest risƒs and impacts are prošected to materialise durin the sec„ ond half of this centur but there are also er sinificant business risƒs in the shorter term‚!% — Short„term impacts are related to fossil fuel use rather than climate chane directl air pollution often from fossil fuels ƒills ”‚” million people loball per annum‚!^ ‹n the usa around 200 000 people die earl each ear from air pollution an annual loss that economists hae alued at usd2”0 billion‚!& 1 Sherwood ¦ Huber 2010 1‘ Sahu et al‚ 201 1” Šoetzel 2020 1Ÿ Œlobal ¢urden of Disease 201Ÿ 1¡ Caiazzo et al‚ 201 ”
— £osses from extreme weather eents in 201¡ were estimated t c a at usd0 billion althouh of course these are not all p m directl attributable to climate chane‚ ‹nsurance coered t i u o less than half of those costs “leain a lobal protection b s a ap of usd1ž2 billion”‚!* n o i t s — e u “ear„term risƒs for business include polic chanes q intended to reduce future impacts of climate chane‚ — “‡odels of economic damae are hopelessly uncertain and don’t tell us anythin” Economic models of climate chane referred to as ‹nte„ rated ssessment Models ›iamsœ are widel considered to be weaƒ‚!( Such models attempt to combine climate science climate impacts and economic models to prošect the costs and benefits of different temperature chanes‚ • …hese models tend to calculate first„order or “direct” impacts of climate chane ›such as damaes due to extreme weather eents or heat stroƒeœ and nelect effects due to miration conflict @) and lon„ lastin catastrophes‚ • iam s tend to assume that climate chane will not affect oerall economic rowth rates‚ …his is contrar to the iew that lare temperature chanes would nea„ tiel affect economic rowth which a rowin literature suests‚@! 1— Swiss ’e 201— 1ž Žarmer et al‚ 201” 20 Hsian et al‚ 201 21 ˆindcƒ 201ª ¢urƒe et al‚ 201”ª ˆretis et al‚ 201— Ÿ
• iams enerall do not account for permanent damaes t c a to capital stocƒs or lon„term decreases in produc„ p m tiit or falls in the rate of technoloical deelopment t i u o all of which climate chane could reasonabl be b s a expected to cause‚@@ n o i t • Models hae also underestimated the rate of deelop„ s e u ment of clean ener technolo maƒin ener q transitions appear oerl costl‚@# 22 Stern 201 2 Creutzi et al‚ 201¡ ¡
6 “Humans will be able to adapt”
Residencial Salvaçao, a government housing development for the rural migrants and the poor on the outskirts of Santarem in Brazil. It opened at the edge of rainforest land in May 2016 and can house up to 15,000 people in its 3,000 units. Seen here in 2017.
— t “„umans ha ve adapted c a to much reater challenes” p m t i u Humans will adapt to climate impacts usin technoloies o b liƒe dƒes improed flood manaement storm„proofed s a n o buildins and air conditionin‚ Hot das hae a lower eco„ i t s nomic impact in areas where heat stress is common ›e‚‚ e u Houstonœ compared to those where it is not ›e‚‚ ¢ostonœ q suestin that lon„run adaptation miht be iable‚! — Howeer most research shows that adaptation cannot eliminate all neatie effects‚@ — “Œolar eoenineerin will solve climate chane” ’ecent modellin suests that a solar radiation manae„ ment proramme ›i‚e‚ reducin incomin sunlihtœ could temporaril reduce human„induced warmin b about half‚# — …he releant effects and conseuences of arious forms of eoenineerin ›such as impacts from sprain sulphur aerosols into the stratosphereœ on the lobal climate and the biosphere are still hihl unclear‚ ˆossible side„effects includin increases of tropical cclone freuenc and other eopolitical challenes are hihlihted in the literature‚$ 1 Heal ¦ ˆarƒ 201Ÿ 2 der et al‚ 200žª Moser ¦ Eƒstrom 2010ª Dow et al‚ 201 ‹rine et al‚ 201ž ‘ °ones et al‚ 201¡ ‘0
— Effects such as ‘termination shocƒ’ in which there is er t c a rapid lobal warmin after a solar eoenineerin pro„ p m ramme halts suddenl could pose sinificant risƒs‚% Solar t i u o eoenineerin would not counteract the impacts of b s a ocean acidification caused b absorption of atmospheric n o i t co2 b seawater‚ s e u q ” …risos et al‚ 201— ‘1
7 “…here’s no point in reducin emissions Earth will ƒeep warmin anwa”
Fire burns former Amazon rain- forest land southeast of Manaus, Brazil, 2018.
— e “e’ve started a process l i t we can’t stop u so we miht as well eep emittin” s f e i s n …he maximum aerae lobal temperature is in part o p s e determined b atmospheric co2 ›and other reenhouse r asœ concentrations‚ ‹f other conditions includin the concentration of other atmospheric ases remain con„ stant risin co2 concentrations will lead to risin temperatures‚ — ¡” per cent of the co2 that reaches the atmosphere will persist there for ¬00 ears with up to 2” per cent remain„ in in the atmosphere for up to 10 000 ears — which is to sa warmin is permanent on timescales releant to humans‚ — ‹n order to halt warmin at an point humans would need to reduce net co2 emissions to ›er close toœ zero‚! ›see figure œ — Efforts to stabilize temperatures b reducin net human emissions to zero should be successful proided there are no mašor actie feedbacƒ loopsª these feedbacƒ loops become more liƒel at hiher temperatures‚@ 1 Šile 201— 2 £owe ¦ ¢ernie 201— ‘‘
8 “…he costs of reducin emissions are er hih”
A plume of smoke rises from a burn of collected oil in the Gulf of Mexico. A total of 411 controlled burns were used to try to rid the Gulf of the most visible surface oil leaked from the BP Deep Water Horizon rig in 2010.
— “Žast sums have been spent ly t on renewables and s o they are still more epensive” s c e i s n Œlobal renewable ener subsidies are approximatel in o p s e the order of usd100 billion each ear excludin the r implicit subsid that renewable ener often receies b wa of public spendin on electricit rid connections and costs for the manaement of intermittenc‚ — Œlobal fossil fuel consumption subsidies tend to be around usd100–”00 billion each ear dependin upon fossil ener prices‚ Subsidies in 201¡ were estimated to be around usd00 billion‚! — ‹f the costs of damae to the enironment are included as an implicit subsid the subsid to fossil fuels is around usd” trillion each ear‚@ “ote howeer that fossil fuels currentl proide sinificantl more ener — indeed the ast mašorit — for the lobal econom‚ — …echnoloical proress in horizontal drillin and hdraulic fracturin hae led to sinificant declines in the cost of oil and as extraction from 200— onwards in the usa as shown in figure ‚ figure …wo decades of us natural as prices Henr Hub “atural Œas Spot ˆrice ›usd per million btuœ USD20 Source: US Energy Information Agency ( 26.10.2020). https:// www.eia.gov/dnav/ USD15 ng/hist/rngwhhdD.htm USD10 USD5 USD0 1997 2000 2010 2020 1 iea 201— 2 Coad et al‚ 201” ‘¡
¯iewed oer the lon term ›see figure 8œ the cost of fossil ly t fuels has been approximatel stationar in real terms s o for around 100 ears # compared to increases in the costs of s c e i s nuclear and declines in the cost of solar photooltaic ›pœ‚ n o p s figure 8 e r £on„run costs of electricit eneration inputs in ƒŠh Coal price for elec„ tricit eneration 100 ¬‘0® of costs USD100 Price in $/kWh Price in $/Wp 50 us nuclear electricit prices USD10 ˆhotooltaic module 10 prices 5 ˆhotooltaic USD1 smoothed alue Žuture solar prices Hinkley Point forecast from 201” 0.17$/kWh=2013 price in $/Wp 1 USD0.1 Source: Farmer & 5c/kWh (~ coal electricity) 0.5 Lafond, 2016 Updated with more recent data with thanks USD0.01 0.1 to François Lafond. 1900 1950 2000 2050 — …he cost of solar p has been fallin at an aerae annual rate of 10 per cent‚$ …here hae been similar consistent cost declines in wind ener ›both onshore and offshoreœ and batteries‚ Solar p and wind costs hae fallen —ž per cent and ¡0 per cent since 200ž respectiel‚% — Een without subsidies new renewables can now be cheaper than the construction of new fossil fuel power plants dependin on location and sstem‚ £azard estimated in 201ž^ that the lower bound estimates for wind ›usd28¥ MŠhœ and solar p ›usd2¥MŠhœ are now cheaper than the same estimates for coal ›usdŸŸ¥MŠhœ and as combined ccle plants ›usd‘‘¥MŠhœ‚ Žarmer ¦ £afond 201Ÿ ‘ ibid ” £azard 201ž Ÿ ibid ‘—
— Decarbonisin the first ”0–Ÿ0 per cent of power sstems is ly t alread potentiall cheaper than fossil fuel eneration‚& s o — s c e i s n ‹n some locations total costs for new wind and solar p o p s e installations are now lower than marinal costs of conen„ r tional power plants seriousl challenin the profit „ abilit of fossil fuel electricit eneration‚ • Žull cost analsis reuires adšustin these costs for all externalities ›deaths from air pollution caused b fossil fuels rid balancin for renewables damaes from climate chaneœ which will ar b location and electricit sstem‚ Œrid balancin costs are expected to increase as use of renewables increases‚ — £are inestments are needed across the wider econom — not šust in the power sector — in low„carbon infrastructure which is expensie if forced as a retrofit‚ Howeer the oerall cost of new low„carbon infrastructure is rouhl the same as that of new hih„carbon infrastructure‚* — …he costs of decarbonisin durin the recession induced b the Coid„1ž pandemic ma be een lower ien reater unused capacit in the econom‚ Central banƒ and finance ministr officials see such action as desirable and a reen recoer miht achiee economic obšecties — includin šob creation — more successfull‚( — Estimates of the costs of decarbonizin the entire econom remain preliminar‚ Some sectors — such as lon„term ener storae industrial heat aiation — reuire techno„ loical and cost adances before costs are liƒel to be low enouh to be politicall feasible‚ • Žor instance a complete retrofit of a domestic house in the ‡nited §indom is currentl unliƒel to ield an economic return on ener sains alone without oernment subsid or reulator interention‚ ¡ Žinƒelstein et al 2020 — “ew Climate Econom 201Ÿ ž Hepburn et al‚ 2020 ‘ž
— “e should just ly t remove carbon dioide s o from the air instead” s c e i s n ‹t is possible to pull co2 bacƒ out of the air !) a procedure o p s e termed “Direct ir Capture” ›dacœ‚ r — …he remoed co2 could potentiall sere as a useful input into new and existin manufacturin processes‚!! — ’emoin co2 from the atmosphere currentl costs some usdž2–22 per tonne of co2 and costs are expected to fall oer time‚!@ — Šhile dac ma help address climate chane it is unliƒel to be economicall sensible to create a lobal industr capable of remoin co2 at the same scale and pace as we are currentl emittin it‚ ‹t is enerall expected that not emittin co2 in the first place is cheaper than remoin it afterwards‚ — Žurther to proide a lon„term solution to climate chane the co2 remoed would need to be permanentl stored in a manner so that it cannot return to the atmosphere‚ — ‹f such efforts were to use trees and other aricultural methods the would potentiall use a sinificant fraction of lobal aricultural land !# althouh more of this land miht become aailable for such use with risin efficiencies in farmin‚!$ 10 §rieler et al‚ 201¡ 11 Hepburn et al‚ 201ž 12 §eith et al‚ 201— 1 Smith et al‚ 201” 1‘ usubel et al‚ 201 ”0
9 “Other countries are not plain their part”
Aerial view of tour boats anchored near the reef offshore of Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula in 2009.
— d “‚hina is the worst polluter e r and they are not doin anythin” a h ly s China is currentl the world’s larest polluter in total‚ ˆer l a u capita China emits less than half the emissions of the us‚ q e Since the industrial reolution the us has had the hihest n s u cumulatie emissions‚! e i s n o — p s e China has the larest solar wind nuclear and hdro deplo„ r ment proramme in the world@ and is in the process of implementin a co2 tradin scheme‚# China accounted for Ÿ per cent of the world’s total renewable ener inestment in 201” and oer half of its new solar capacit in 201¡‚$ — Howeer China also continues to build new coal„fired power plants‚ …he China Electricit Council has suested that the countr could build a further 00 iawatts ›gwœ of capacit to reach a total capacit of 1 00 gw in 200‚% — “‰ther countries are not on board” 1ž¡ countries hae sined the ˆaris reement which commits them to ƒeepin temperatures “well below 2°C”‚ …he will also “pursue efforts” to limit warmin to 1‚”°C from pre„industrial leels‚ s of 2020 1—ž countries hae ratified the areement‚^ — …he us exited the ˆaris reement on “oember ‘th 2020 but man subnational oernments within the us hae made pledes to uphold the tarets‚& ˆresident„elect ¢iden announced his administration would re„šoin the ˆaris reement b executie order on his first da in office‚* 1 Žrumhoff et al‚ 201”ª ‘ bnef 201— ¢aer et al‚ 2000 ” Shearer et al‚ 201ž 2 irena 201Ÿª iea Ÿ ‡nited “ations 2020 201¡ ¡ unfccc 201¡ Šorld ¢anƒ ¦ Ecofs Hale et al‚ 201— 201— — ’eaan 2020 ”
— Man of the actual commitments under the ˆaris ree„ d e r ment are modest and man of these are not bein deliered a h upon ( althouh a number of countries hae announced ly s l their intention to scale up their climate action ahead of a u q cop2Ÿ‚ s of “oember 2020 eiht countries hae either e n achieed or leislated for net„zero emissions b 20‘” s u e i or 20”0‚ further 1— countries and the eu as a whole are s n o p actiel worƒin towards net„zero leislation‚ Since s e autumn 2020 this roup coers more than half of lobal r co2 as well as two„thirds of lobal coal consumption as mašor East sian emitters China §orea and °apan hae announced their net„zero intentions‚!) dditionall žž countries are currentl discussin similar efforts‚!! ›see figure žœ — …he ˆaris reement architecture allows for multiple leels of action includin action b corporations states and cities‚ Climate action pledes hae been taƒen b Ÿ 22” com panies headuartered in oer 100 countries and ¡ 000 cities representin usdŸ‚” trillion in reenue larer than the combined gdp of the us and China‚ …oether these pledes account for reductions of 1‚”–2‚2 ia„ tonnes of co2 euialent b 200‚!@ figure §e economic indicators coered b net„zero tarets 100% Countries with net-zero targets 26% Chile 75% 29% China 71% 74% E‡ 37% °apan 63% 44% 46% South frica 47% 56% 50% 53% 54% South §orea Switzerland 64% 65% ‡nited §indom 36% 35% Other countries 25% Countries without net-zero targets ‡nited States ‹ndia 0% Other countries GDP Population Coal Oil Energy Gas Solar CO2 Note: inspired by Simon Evans at CarbonBrief. ž ¯ictor et al‚ 201¡ Data retrieved from ECIU, BP, and the World Bank 10 Carbon¢rief 2020 World Development 11 eciu 2020 Indicators. 12 un Enironment Source: CarbonBrief – 201— Simon Evans ”‘
— d “‚ountries are ma in pledes e r but not doin anythin” a h ly s Oerall Earth is on tracƒ to warm 2‚ž°C ›estimated rane l a u 2‚1°C – ‚ž°Cœ !# if current policies were to be implemented‚ q e ‹f all nations fulfill their currentl stated tarets then n s u warmin could be limited to 2‚1°C‚ e i s n o — p s e Œlobal co2 emissions are still increasinª the estimated r increase was 2‚¡ per cent in 201—‚!$ — ˆroress aries across countries‚ Chinese emissions are prošected to hae increased b ‘‚¡ per cent in 201— !% while eu2— emissions fell 0‚¡ per cent — the eu is the onl mašor lobal reion to reduce emissions‚ …he ‡nited §indom has reduced emissions from around —00 million tonnes ›Mtœ co2e in 1žž0 to around ”00 Mt co2e toda with a leal reuirement to reduce emissions to net„zero b 20”0‚!^ — More than ”2 other countries states and proinces hae šoined an areement to completel phase out coal before 200‚!& ‹n particular • …he u Secretar of State announced in 201” that coal„ fired power will be closed entirel b 202”ª and coal has alread declined from 11‚‘ Mt in 2010 to 1‚ž Mt in 201¡‚!* • …he Canadian Œoernment announced in 201— that coal„fired power will be phased out and closed entirel b 200‚!( • …he Œerman Œoernment announced in 201ž that coal„fired power will be phased out and closed entirel b 20—‚@) 1 Climate ction 1¡ ˆowerin ˆast Coal …racƒer 2020 lliance 201— 1‘ Œlobal Carbon 1— …widale 201”ª u ¢udet 201— Ener ¢rief 201— 1” ibid 1ž Œoernment of 1Ÿ u Statutor ‹nstru„ Canada 201— ments 201ž 20 Šacƒet 201ž ””
— Carbon prices are now in place in ”2 countries and 2‘ sub„ d e r national reions raisin usd¡ž‚Ÿ2 billion of reenue a h in 201— and coerin rouhl 20 per cent of lobal emis„ ly s l sions‚@! Most carbon prices in such schemes are far too a u q low to delier the necessar abatement‚ e n — s u e i Since 201Ÿ inestment in renewable ener has exceeded s n o p that in fossil fuels‚ ‹n 201— lobal clean ener inest„ s e ment exceeded usd00 billion for the fifth ear in a row r and there was a record 100 gw of photooltaic capacit installed‚@@ 2 1 Šorld ¢anƒ 201ž 2 2 unep bnef 201ž ”Ÿ
The photorapher …he pictures featured in this brochure are the worƒ of Daniel ¢eltrá a Seattle„based multiple award„winnin photorapher‚ Daniel ¢eltrá was born in Madrid Spain in 1žŸ‘‚ His passion for conseration is eident in imaes of our enironment that are eocatiel poinant‚ ‹n 2011 he receied the Šildlife ˆhotorapher of the ²ear ward for his worƒ on the Œulf Oil Spill‚ Daniel’s worƒ has been published b the most prominent international pub„ lications includin …he “ew ²orƒer …ime “ewsweeƒ …he “ew ²orƒ …imes £e Monde and El ˆaís‚ The ‹ri ‹ictet ˆhotoraph Daniel ¢eltrá was short„listed for the “ˆower” ccle of the ˆrix ˆictet’s 2012 edition‚ …he ˆrix ˆictet is the world’s leadin award for photo„ raph and sustainabilit‚ £aunched in 200— the award aims to draw lobal attention to these issues‚ …here hae been eiht ccles of the award so far — each of which has hihlihted a particular facet of sustainabilit‚ …he photoraphers are nomi nated b a worldwide networƒ of experts‚ ”¡
¢rohan ˆ‚ §enned °‚ °‚ Harris ‹‚ …ett S‚ Ž‚ ¦ °ones ˆ‚ D‚ ›200Ÿœ‚ ‡ncertaint estimates in reional and lobal obsered temperature chanes new data set Dessler ‚ E‚ ›2011œ‚ Cloud ariations from 1—”0‚ ‚ournal of ƒeophysical Research„ and the Earth’s ener budet‚ ƒeophysical €tmospheres… †††›D12œ‚ Research Letters — £1ž¡01‚ ¢urƒe M‚ Hsian S‚ M‚ ¦ Miuel E‚ Dow §‚ ¢erƒhout Ž‚ ˆreston ¢‚ £‚ §lein ›201”œ‚ Œlobal non„linear effect of tem„ ’‚ °‚ …‚ Midle Œ‚ ¦ Shaw M‚ ’‚ perature on economic production‚ a- ›201œ‚ £imits to adaptation‚ ature Climate der Š‚ “‚ et al‚ ›200žœ‚ re there social ture… ‡ˆ‰›¡”¡¡œ 2”–2ž‚ Change ›‘œ 0”–0¡‚ limits to adaptation to climate chane» Carbon¢rief ›2020aœ‚ Mapped How climate EC‹‡‚ ›2020œ‚ “et„´ero …racƒer‚ Ener and Climatic Change ž›–‘œ ”–”‘‚ chane affects extreme weather around Climate ‹ntellience ‡nit aailable ssmann Sarahª Castleman Šelfordª ‹rwin the world‚ ailable at https¥¥www‚ at https¥¥eciu‚net¥netzerotracƒer¥map Mar °ª °ablonsƒi “ina Œª ¯ondraceƒ 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Disclaimer The views expressed in this paper represent those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Smith School, Pictet Group or other institutions or funders. The paper is in- tended to promote discussion and to provide timely public access to results emerging from research. It may have been submitted for publication in aca- demic journals. It has been reviewed by at least one internal academic referee before publication. Suggested citation Hepburn, C. and Schwarz, M. (2020). Climate Change: Answers to common questions. A report prepared for Pictet Asset Management. Ÿ