Should survey respondents’ forecast growth in This growth is concentrated in non-G20 countries, education jobs materialize in the next five years, this where it is expected to be around 17%, whereas would continue the trend in social jobs that labour G20 countries expect to see a 1% net decline. The markets around the world witnessed in the past regional picture is mixed, with employers in Europe three years, as highlighted by research conducted expecting 8% net growth while those in South Asia by Indeed for this year’s Future of Jobs Report (see expect to see a 9% net decline. Box 3.2). For Construction Workers, more respondents expect the role to decline than grow, however the Agriculture jobs relative size of these changes mean we expect to see demand for an additional 1 million workers. There is also expected to be significant churn Jobs for Agricultural professionals, especially between jobs and employers. Agricultural Equipment Operators, are expected to see an increase of 30%. Given the current For Assembly and Factory Workers, respondents employment levels for these roles, this could lead expect a reduction in demand of 5%, which could to an additional 3 million jobs. This increased reduce this workforce by about 2 million jobs. demand may be driven by the combined effect of This reduction is driven by declining demand from several trends such as supply chains shortening Advanced Manufacturing and Electronics industries and input costs rising, as well as the increasing – especially in China, Japan, Singapore and the use of agricultural technologies, and increasing United Kingdom. These workers may, however, be investments in climate change adaptation. shielded from some of the impacts of Generative Many Agricultural workers are employed in AI, as manufacturing roles are expected to be less 52 organizations that are underrepresented in the prone to automation from this technology. Future of Jobs Survey, so these numbers should also be interpreted with care. These workers can also expect to be less impacted by generative Supply-chain and logistics jobs AI according to research on the impact of Large 51 Language Models on the Labour Market. Another job group that is facing both expectations of growth and decline in jobs are roles connected Repairers, factory-workers and to Logistics. Localization of supply chains is labourers expected to be one of the largest gross contributors to job growth but also a significant job displacer. Meanwhile, supply shortages and rising input costs With uncertain impacts from increased uptake of are expected to be a major job displacer – second frontier technologies and non-humanoid robots, only to a global economic slowdown. As a result, such as drones and industrial automation (see the report finds some employers expect to hire Chapter 2), there is a mixed outlook for Mechanics more Heavy Truck and Bus Drivers, while others and Machinery Repairers, Construction Labourers, expect to reduce this workforce. On aggregate, and Assembly and Factory Workers. respondents expect a net increase of 2 million, or 12.5% of this workforce. This expected growth may For Mechanics and Machinery Repairers, almost compound the current Driver shortages outlined in as many respondents expect a declining outlook Chapter 1 of this report. In contrast, expectations as a growing one. However, the relative size of regarding Car, Van and Motorcycle Drivers differ growth and decline that respondents expect, and among respondents, but, overall see a net decline the large total employment in the role, means this is of 0.6 million (4%). Logistics Specialists, as well as one of the largest-growing roles in absolute terms Light Truck Drivers, should see small net increases. at around 1.9 million additional jobs expected. Future of Jobs Report 2023 35