over several months centred around the turn of denominator, across all responses pertaining to 2023. Metrics relating to both concepts reflect a particular role or industry. In the case of churn, forecast structural changes in employment across the calculation is identical, except for taking the companies, economies, industries and roles. absolute value of decreases, so that all terms in the Turnover induced by employees moving between numerator are positive. In both cases, changes in jobs for personal reasons is not included. the stable workforce fraction are neglected in the numerator, to respect the respondent’s indication Fractional metrics that this workforce is stable. Stable workforce fractions from 2023 are nevertheless included in the Respondents aggregated roles included in the jobs denominator, to ensure that responses indicating a taxonomy to six groups: stable workforce fraction appropriately suppress the magnitude of net growth and churn. – roles representing a large proportion of the organization’s workforce with a stable Reweighted metrics employment outlook for the next five years; ILO data were then used to translate the forecast – roles representing a large proportion of the fractional net growth for each role into estimates organization’s workforce which are expected to of the number of jobs that will be created or grow in the next five years; displaced between 2023 and 2027. ILO estimates (excluding their modelled estimates) of the number – roles representing a large proportion of the of employees in each occupational category of organization’s workforce which are expected to ISCO08 level 2 were used as a basis for the number be increasingly redundant in the next five years; of employees working at the time of publication. To approximate the number of employees in – specialised and strategic roles which are crucial each occupation of the jobs taxonomy used in to the organization, represent a small proportion the Future of Jobs Survey, the jobs taxonomy of the organization’s workforce today and are (a modified and extended version of the O*NET expected to have a stable employment outlook SOC occupational classification) was mapped to in the next five years; the ISCO08 occupational taxonomy used in the ILO data by modifying and extending the map – specialised and strategic roles which are crucial developed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, to the organization, represent a small proportion which connects O*NET SOC level 4 and ISCO08 of the organization’s workforce today and which level 2. Ambiguities arising due to differences in the are expected to be increasingly important in the granularity of job titles were resolved using Future of next five years; and Jobs Survey data to estimate the relative numbers of employees based on the number of times jobs – specialised and strategic roles which are crucial were selected by respondents. Estimates of present to the organization, represent a small proportion employment were then multiplied by the fractional of the organization’s workforce today and which net growth estimates obtained from the survey, to are expected to be increasingly redundant in the estimate net growth worldwide in units of millions of next five years. employees. Respondents allocated up to three roles from the Using this method, the Future of Jobs dataset jobs taxonomy to each of the six groups. One of described in Chapter 3 corresponds to 673 million the three roles in the three specialised and strategic employees. By comparison, the ILO dataset used categories could be specified by a free-text field. in the analysis accounts for 820 million employees. Free-text fields were subsequently allocated to jobs The remaining 147 million employees correspond in the jobs taxonomy where possible. Metrics on to roles for which the Future of Jobs Survey did roles are only published in the report when they not collect sufficient data to reliably estimate net meet statistical criteria in a given sample. growth. Data on employees rather than general employment was used as organisations responding Respondents subsequently allocated workforce to the Future of Jobs Survey maintain workers in fractions to each of the above groups of jobs, formal rather than informal employment. both at present and as predicted for 2027. These workforce fractions were used to calculate two The available ILO dataset which boasts an metrics: estimated net growth between 2023 and occupational employment breakdown with level 2027 and estimated structural labour-market churn 2 granularity in ISCO08 is smaller than modelled from 2023 to 2027, for the labour forces pertaining ILO estimates of a total of 1.739 billion employees to roles in the jobs taxonomy and industries in the worldwide when country-level data gaps are industry taxonomy. In both cases, the fractional extrapolated, and smaller still than the estimated increase or decrease between 2023 and 2027 3.283 billion workers in either formal or informal pertaining to a job or industry is compared to its employment. Extrapolating beyond this sample of workforce fraction in 2023. In the calculation of 673 million employees would require unfounded net growth, increases and decreases are added assumptions regarding the structure of labour and subtracted in the numerator, and divided markets, but readers may use these normalizations by the sum of workforce fractions in 2023 in the to perform rough estimations of the expected full Future of Jobs Report 2023 65