We can thank low interest rates for that. Since the mid-2000s, Projected economic central bank policy rates have gone down much more than growth for 2019 up, and now that’s changing. After keeping rates at ultra-low levels for most of the past decade, the Bank of Canada has hiked them five times since July 2017 – and is expected to do so twice more in 2019. But if this year shapes up to be one of greater uncertainty, both in Canada and abroad, it won’t be solely because of the overextended consumer. Globalization is being challenged, 1.7% with the U.S. administration engaging in a trade war with China, and the UK’s exit from the EU proving to be far from graceful or predictable. Is it too much to expect the economic boom to continue? This year will mark the 10th anniversary of expansion for the U.S. economy, which remains the world’s largest single engine of growth. That would set a record if it continues past mid-year, and would put the economy, without much doubt, closer to 2.5% the end of the boom than the beginning. Against this backdrop, we set out here to examine some of the trends that will unfold in the year ahead – the risks to watch for and the opportunities to be had. Coming into 2019, the U.S. economy was on firm ground, with growth projected to slow mildly, to 2½%. Canada enjoys sev- eral advantages, including strong population growth, an increasingly dynamic economy and our continued embrace of free trade, though we also face pressure from lower-than-ex- pected oil prices and tightening financial conditions. Add all this together, and we still believe it’s premature to say this year will mark the end of the expansion. So what will keep growth going? After years of ultra-low interest rates, it will have to be more than the consumer. In 2019, the economy may finally have to stand on its own. RBC Economics Research | Navigating 2019 - 9 big insights for the year ahead | January 2019 2