Future COVID-19 impact is regional and heterogeneous Significant international and regional variation: disproportionate impact on lower socio-economic + minority groups New York on New Jersey i California at Michigan Florida popul Massachusetts 100k Pennsylvania USA / Louisiana Projected total es confirmed cases as c per 100k: 855 e v i (range: 748-1025) t c A 40 Hungary on on i Hungary i Poland at 45 (44-48) at 30 Romania Projected popul popul total 20 100k confirmed Poland 100k / / India es cases per 91 (87-100) es10 Projected total as 100k: as c c confirmed cases e e 0 v v per 100k: 39 i i t t (range: 31-53) c c A Romania A 110 (102-119) Source: IQVIA Active Cases Curve Simulator. IQVIA Global Executive Briefing: COVID-19 June 2020; Copyright 2020 IQVIA. 5