Strategic Shareholder Climate and Risk Financial Financial Barclays PLC 321 report information sustainability report Governance review review statements Annual Report 2022 Risk performance - Credit risk (continued) a Macroeconomic variables (specific bases) (audited) Upside 2 Upside 1 Baseline Downside 1 Downside 2 As at 31 December 2022 % % % % % b UK GDP 13.9 9.4 1.4 (3.2) (6.8) c UK unemployment 3.4 3.6 4.2 6.6 8.5 d UK HPI 37.8 21.0 1.2 (17.9) (35.0) UK bank rate 0.5 0.5 3.5 6.3 8.0 b US GDP 14.1 9.6 1.3 (2.5) (6.3) c US unemployment 3.3 3.6 4.4 6.7 8.6 d US HPI 35.0 27.5 3.8 3.7 0.2 US federal funds rate 0.1 0.1 3.3 6.0 7.0 As at 31 December 2021 b UK GDP 21.4 18.3 3.4 (1.6) (1.6) c UK unemployment 4.0 4.1 4.5 7.0 9.2 d UK HPI 35.7 23.8 2.4 (12.7) (29.9) UK bank rate 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.0 b US GDP 22.8 19.6 3.4 1.5 (1.3) c US unemployment 3.3 3.5 4.1 6.8 9.5 d US HPI 53.3 45.2 6.2 2.2 (5.0) US federal funds rate 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.5 Average basis represents the average quarterly value of variables in the 20 quarter period with GDP and HPI based on yearly average and quarterly CAGRs respectively. a Macroeconomic variables (5 year averages) (audited) Upside 2 Upside 1 Baseline Downside 1 Downside 2 As at 31 December 2022 % % % % % e UK GDP 3.0 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.0 f UK unemployment 3.5 3.8 4.2 5.4 6.7 g UK HPI 6.6 3.9 1.2 (2.6) (6.4) UK bank rate 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.7 5.8 e US GDP 2.9 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.0 f US unemployment 3.4 3.9 4.4 5.5 6.7 g US HPI 6.2 5.0 3.8 2.5 1.2 US federal funds rate 2.8 3.1 3.3 4.3 5.2 As at 31 December 2021 e UK GDP 4.4 3.9 3.4 2.7 1.8 f UK unemployment 4.3 4.4 4.5 5.8 7.0 g UK HPI 6.3 4.4 2.4 0.3 (2.0) UK bank rate 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.7 2.3 e US GDP 4.4 3.9 3.4 2.4 1.3 f US unemployment 3.9 4.0 4.1 5.7 7.1 g US HPI 8.9 7.7 6.2 3.6 1.4 US federal funds rate 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.5 2.1 Notes a UK GDP = Real GDP growth seasonally adjusted; UK unemployment = UK unemployment rate 16-year+; UK HPI = Halifax All Houses, All Buyers Index; US GDP = Real GDP growth seasonally adjusted; US unemployment = US civilian unemployment rate 16-year+; US HPI = FHFA house price index. 20 quarter period starts from Q121 (2020: Q120). b Maximum growth relative to Q420 (2021: Q419), based on 20 quarter period in Upside scenarios; 5-year yearly average CAGR in Baseline; minimum growth relative to Q420 (2021: Q419), based on 20 quarter period in Downside scenarios. c Lowest quarter in Upside scenarios; 5-year average in Baseline; highest quarter in Downside scenarios. Period based on 20 quarters from Q121 (2021: Q120). d Maximum growth relative to Q420 (2021: Q419), based on 20 quarter period in Upside scenarios; 5-year quarter end CAGR in Baseline; minimum growth relative to Q420 (2021: Q419), based on 20 quarter period in Downside scenarios. e 5-year yearly average CAGR, starting 2021 (2021: 2020). f 5-year average, Period based on 20 quarters from Q121 (2021: Q120). g 5-year quarter end CAGR, starting Q420 (2021: Q419).