Strategic Shareholder Climate and Risk Financial Financial Barclays PLC 320 report information sustainability report Governance review review statements Annual Report 2022 Risk performance - Credit risk (continued) Upside 1 average macroeconomic variables used in the calculation of ECL 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 As at 31 December 2022 % % % % % a UK GDP 3.3 1.0 2.3 2.4 2.1 b UK unemployment 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 c UK HPI 8.4 1.8 2.9 3.3 3.2 UK bank rate 1.8 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.8 a US GDP 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.2 d US unemployment 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 e US HPI 11.2 3.8 3.3 3.4 3.4 US federal funds rate 2.1 3.9 3.4 3.0 3.0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 As at 31 December 2021 % % % % % a UK GDP 6.2 6.0 3.1 2.3 1.9 b UK unemployment 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.1 c UK HPI 4.7 5.0 5.0 3.9 3.3 UK bank rate 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 a US GDP 5.5 4.6 3.4 2.9 2.9 d US unemployment 5.5 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 e US HPI 11.8 8.3 7.0 6.0 5.7 US federal funds rate 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 Notes a Average Real GDP seasonally adjusted change in year. b Average UK unemployment rate 16-year+. c Change in year end UK HPI = Halifax All Houses, All Buyers index, relative to prior year end. d Average US civilian unemployment rate 16-year+. e Change in year end US HPI = FHFA house price index, relative to prior year end. a Scenario probability weighting (audited) Upside 2 Upside 1 Baseline Downside 1 Downside 2 % % % % % As at 31 December 2022 Scenario probability weighting 10.9 23.1 39.4 17.6 9.0 As at 31 December 2021 Scenario probability weighting 20.9 27.2 30.1 14.8 7.0 Note a For further details on changes to scenario weights see page 317. Specific bases shows the most extreme position of each variable in the context of the downside/upside scenarios, for example, the highest unemployment for downside scenarios, average unemployment for baseline scenarios and lowest unemployment for upside scenarios. GDP and HPI downside and upside scenario data represents the lowest and highest cumulative position relative to the start point, in the 20 quarter period.