sCenarIos desIgn 182 sCenarIos 182 Scenarios can be useful in guiding the design of new business models or innovating around existing models. Like visual thinking (p. 146), prototyping (p. 160), and storytelling (p. 170), scenarios render the abstract tangible. For our purposes, their primary function is to inform the business model development process by making the design context specifi c and detailed. Here we discuss two types of scenarios. The fi rst describes differ- ent customer settings: how products or services are used, what kinds of customers use them, or customer concerns, desires, and objectives. Such scenarios build on customer insights (p. 126), but go a step further by incorporating knowledge about custom- ers into a set of distinct, concrete images. By describing a specifi c situation, a customer scenario makes customer insights tangible. A second type of scenario describes future environments in which a business model might compete. The goal here is not to predict the future, but rather to imagine possible futures in concrete detail. This exercise helps innova- tors refl ect on the most appropriate business model for each of several future environ- ments. The strategy literature discusses this practice in detail under the topic of “scenario planning.” Applying scenario planning techniques to business model innovation forces refl ection on how a model might have to evolve under certain conditions. This sharpens understanding of the model, and of potentially necessary adaptations. Most important, it helps us prepare for the future. Scenario-Guided Business Model Design — bmgen_final.indd 182 6/15/10 5:44 PM