Special topic The energy system 56 | 57 Renewables roll-out potentially more than 50%, which would be more Banking on nature In contrast, renewables deliver sustainable, readily than twice that of other sources such as solar. Estimated yearly solar and wind global additions to align to low-carbon scenarios (in GW) available, domestic and economically competitive Finally, offshore wind is already economically energy generation. Even before the surge in fuel competitive. For example, it offered the lowest 2 prices, estimates of lifecycle costs were already power price at a recent large auction in the UK. signaling solar and wind energy as preferable to Thus, we expect this technology to experience other sources of electricity. In addition, we can exponential growth in the future. expect the yield of existing renewables to improve over their lifetime, as storage solutions such as ...but solar (and storage) not far behind grid-scale batteries become more common. Solar power represented only 3.6% of the global 3 electricity mix in 2021. However, solar photovoltaic To meet the Paris Agreement, we estimate that (PV) is forecast to lead global renewable capacity 4 cumulative wind and solar capacity needs to grow additions in 2022 and 2023. Solar projects will be 3.5× vs. 2021 levels by 2030. For solar panels increasingly paired with battery storage in the future, alone, BloombergNEF estimates that existing and as the technology evolves and costs decline. In planned manufacturing capacity will be sufficient to markets such as California, over 95% of solar 1 build 940 gigawatt of panels every year by 2025. assets in the grid connection queue are already 5 We also believe that nuclear power has a role to play. paired with energy storage. This allows developers While several factors are slowing its rollout, nuclear and grid operators to better manage the variability of energy has the potential to complement the produc- renewables, and it provides a concrete alternative to 6 tion of low-carbon electricity where renewable costly and polluting natural gas-peaker plants. resources are limited. 226 ≥ 470 2021 additions Average yearly additions 2022–2030 Offshore wind the one to watch… The development of floating wind technologies Source IRENA (December 2021); Country data; Credit Suisse estimates makes it possible to explore new markets and geographies where bottom-fixed foundations are impractical. Offshore wind offers a remarkable capacity factor (ratio of actual energy output over a Wind picking up given period to the maximum possible output) of Estimated potential offshore wind capacity by 2030 (in GW) 56 Global capacity in 2021 ≥ 375 Estimated global capacity by 2030 Find out more Source IRENA (December 2021); Country data; Credit Suisse estimates