Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst Macro Outlook 2023: This Cycle Is Different Global growth slowed sharply through 2022 on a diminishing reopening boost, fiscal and monetary tightening, Chinas ongoing Covid restrictions and property slump, and the energy supply shock resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war. We expect the world to continue growing at a below-trend pace of 1.8% in 2023, with a mild recession in Europe and a bumpy reopening in China but also important pockets of resilience in the US and some EM early hikers, such as Brazil. Exhibit 1: Slow Growth in 2023, But Above-Consensus on the US Real GDP Growth Annual Average Q4/Q4 Next 4 Quarters Percent Change yoy 2022.. 2023.. 2024.. 2023 2022Q4-2023Q3 Potential GS Consensus GS Consensus GS Consensus GS GS GS US 1.9 1.8 1.0 0.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.8 Euro Area 3.3 3.1 -0.1 -0.1 1.4 1.5 0.0 -0.5 1.1 Germany 1.8 1.6 -0.6 -0.7 1.4 1.3 -0.3 -0.9 1.3 France 2.5 2.5 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.3 -0.1 1.1 Italy 3.8 3.5 -0.1 -0.1 1.3 1.2 -0.1 -0.7 0.8 Spain 4.6 4.5 0.6 1.0 2.1 2.0 0.6 0.2 1.3 Japan 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.5 0.8 UK 4.4 4.2 -1.2 -0.5 0.9 1.1 -0.8 -1.6 1.4 Canada 3.2 3.3 0.9 0.6 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.7 1.6 China 3.0 3.3 4.5 4.8 5.3 4.9 5.5 4.2 4.2 India 6.9 7.1 5.9 5.8 6.5 6.6 7.5 7.2 6.0 Brazil 2.9 2.7 1.2 0.8 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.0 1.9 Russia -3.3 -4.0 -1.3 -3.2 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.2 World 2.9 2.9 1.8 1.8 2.8 2.6 2.4 1.8 2.6 Note: All forecasts calculated on calendar year basis. 2022-2024 are GS forecasts. Potential growth is the median of GS estimates for 2023-25 for the US, Japan and Canada, our long-run estimate for the European economies and 2023 for EM economies. IMF forecasts used for India 2023 and 2024 consensus when quarters not available in Bloomberg. The global growth aggregates use market FX country weights. Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 16 November 2022 2