Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst Exhibit 11: We Expect 125bp of Additional Funds Rate Hikes and No Cuts in 2023 Percent Rate Hikes at FOMC Meetings 5.00- Percent 5.5 25bp 5.25% 5.5 5.0 33bp 25bp 15bp 5bp 5.0 4.5 50bp 54bp 25bp 4.48% 4.5 4.0 Size of 75bp 4.0 rate hike 3.5 75bp 3.5 3.0 FOMC Estimate of Longer-Run Rate 3.0 2.5 75bp 2.5 2.0 75bp 2.0 1.5 Actual 1.5 1.0 50bp 1.0 0.5 25bp GSForecast 0.5 0.0 Market Pricing 0.0 Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Feb Mar May End-23 2022 2023 Level Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research With a resilient labor market and still elevated inflation, we dont see any rate cuts in 2023 unless the economy enters recession after all. In our no-recession forecast, the Fed only implements a first gentle 25bp cut in 2024Q2. This baseline of “high rates for longer” would again illustrate how different this cycle is as the first Fed cut in the median hiking cycle has historically come roughly six months after the last hike. 16 November 2022 10