ING global economic outlook 2023 December 2022 Our call on inflation Inflation – it's complicated. And it has dominated headlines for the past two years. Here's what we think is going to happen next Carsten Brzeski Global Head of Macro and Chief Economist, Eurozone, Germany, Austria [email protected] James Knightley Chief International Economist, Americas [email protected] James Smith Economist, Developed Markets [email protected] Industrial unrest has been increasing as workers demand higher wages to match inflation. 'For our wages' reads this banner at a recent protest in France A complicated story The drivers behind inflation have been discussed extensively. Lockdowns and reopenings, supply chain frictions, the war in Ukraine and an energy crisis pushed up headline inflation in most industrialised economies into double-digit levels this year. While inflation in Europe is still mainly driven by higher energy, commodity and food prices, it's become much more domestically driven in the US. At the end of the year, headline inflation in the States had started to come down significantly, and it seemed to have approached its peak in the eurozone. The big question for 2023 is whether headline inflation will retreat further and, if it does, how fast will the fall be? As we've seen over the past couple of years, the inflation outlook varies between regions. The long road towards lower inflation Generally speaking, manufacturing firms across developed markets are reporting lower orders and rapidly rising inventory levels. Coupled with lower input prices for many commodities and also shipping, this points not only to lower inflation but also potentially to outright price falls in some durable goods categories; we already see that with used cars. That’s consistent with history, too: Goods inflation, particularly consumer durables, tends to be more volatile, but trends are also less persistent than services inflation. Just as goods price inflation surprised higher during Covid, it also has the potential to do the same on the downside. In the US, the latest ex-food and energy inflation readings are undershooting expectations, with some evidence that weakening corporate pricing power is spreading as businesses become more cautious about the outlook and see their inventory levels rise. However, Federal Reserve officials have signalled concern about services excluding housing (around 25% of the inflation basket) with the latest strong wage data set to