INTRODUCTION Navigating Potential Economic Outcomes Economic V-shaped Uncertainty Recovery with a possible short lived boom, driven by huge stimulus needed for a hard stop to the In addition to not knowing pandemic. This would be a surprise scenario. how the virus will progress, we U-shaped are all operating in a time of massive economic uncertainty. Recovery based on a longer crisis, driven by a more modest response to the pandemic. This appears increasingly likely. Research identifies four models of potential economic L-shaped outcomes. However, no model fits every region, which only Non-recovery of a decay into depression, driven by failed responses to the pandemic adds to the uncertainty. and economic crisis. This would represent a deep and long global depression due to Consider these outcomes as your the interconnectedness of world economies. team develops scenario planning. Y-shaped Recovery is a combination of U- and L-shaped recoveries — in this (likely) case, the economy divides into two tracks: fast and slow sectors that represent fast and slow recoveries. The COVID-19 Response Playbook | 5