Lead authors Joseph Davis, Roger A. Jumana Saleheen, Qian Wang, Andrew J. Ph.D. Aliaga-Díaz, Ph.D. Ph.D. Ph.D. Patterson, CFA Kevin DiCiurcio, Alexis Gray, Asawari Sathe, Joshua M. Hirt, Shaan Raithatha, CFA M.Sc. M.Sc. CFA CFA Vanguard Investment Strategy Group Global Economics Team Joseph Davis, Ph.D., Global Chief Economist Americas Asia-Pacific Roger A. Aliaga-Díaz, Ph.D., Americas Chief Economist Qian Wang, Ph.D., Asia-Pacific Chief Economist Joshua M. Hirt, CFA, Senior Economist Alexis Gray, M.Sc., Senior Economist Andrew J. Patterson, CFA, Senior Economist Capital Markets Model Research Team Asawari Sathe, M.Sc., Senior Economist Qian Wang, Ph.D., Global Head of VCMM Adam J. Schickling, CFA Kevin DiCiurcio, CFA, Senior Investment Strategist Maximilian Wieland Daniel Wu, Ph.D., Senior Investment Strategist David Diwik, M.Sc. Ian Kresnak, CFA Ariana Abousaeedi Vytautas Maciulis, CFA Europe Olga Lepigina, MBA Jumana Saleheen, Ph.D., Europe Chief Economist Ben Vavreck, CFA Shaan Raithatha, CFA, Senior Economist Lukas Brandl-Cheng, M.Sc. Roxane Spitznagel, M.Sc. Alex Qu Lulu Al Ghussein, M.Sc. Acknowledgments: We thank Brand Design, Corporate Communications, Strategic Communications, and the Asset Allocation teams for their significant contributions to this piece. Further, we would like to acknowledge the work of Vanguard’s broader Investment Strategy Group, without whose tireless research efforts this piece would not be possible. 2