Overall, we expect GDP growth of around 0.25% relative to before the pandemic. Figure I-14 over the course of 2023. Key interest-rate- shows the current severity of real income sensitive sectors of the economy such as housing shortfall compared with the pre-COVID income have already abruptly slowed, and consumers are trend. Households in aggregate have thus far facing wage gains that, while nominally strong, absorbed rising prices by relying on a strong labor have turned sharply negative in real terms. We market and a remaining savings buffer built up estimate that given the pace of inflation relative during the pandemic, but inflation has depressed to wages, the average household experienced a sentiment, and overall growth activity has slowed $400 shortfall per month in its standard of living below trend as we head into 2023. FIGURE I-14 Real purchasing power is a key headwind to growth $ Pandemic stimulus measures d e z  i l a Real disposable u n n income a on li il tr $ d en tr      January July January July January July       Sources: Vanguard and Refinitiv, as of October 31, 2022. 19