World on the Brink

How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty- First Century WORLD ON THE BRINK DMITRI ALPEROVITCH with GARRETT M. GRAFF WorldOnBrink_HCtext4P.indd iii 2/10/24 11:15:19 AM

Copyright © 2024 by Dmitri Alperovitch Cover design by Pete Garceau Cover photograph © iStock/Getty Images Cover copyright © 2024 by Hachette Book Group, Inc. Hachette Book Group supports the right to free expression and the value of copyright. 吀栀e purpose of copyright is to encourage writers and artists to produce the creative works that enrich our culture. 吀栀e scanning, uploading, and distribution of this book without permission is a theft of the author’s intellectual property. If you would like permission to use material from the book (other than for review purposes), please contact [email protected]. 吀栀ank you for your support of the author’s rights. PublicA昀昀airs Hachette Book Group 1290 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10104 www.publica昀昀airsbooks.com @Public_A昀昀airs Printed in the United States of America First Edition: April 2024 Published by PublicA昀昀airs, an imprint of Hachette Book Group, Inc. 吀栀e PublicA昀昀airs name and logo is a registered trademark of the Hachette Book Group. 吀栀e Hachette Speakers Bureau provides a wide range of authors for speaking events. To 昀椀nd out more, go to hachettespeakersbureau.com or email HachetteSpeakers @hbgusa.com. PublicA昀昀airs books may be purchased in bulk for business, educational, or promotional use. For more information, please contact your local bookseller or the Hachette Book Group Special Markets Department at [email protected]. 吀栀e publisher is not responsible for websites (or their content) that are not owned by the publisher. Print book interior design by Amy Quinn. Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data Names: Alperovitch, Dmitri, author. | Gra昀昀, Garrett M., 1981– author. Title: World on the brink : how America can beat China in the race for the twenty-昀椀rst century / Dmitri Alperovitch, with Garrett M. Gra昀昀. Other titles: How America can beat China in the race for the twenty-昀椀rst century. Description: First edition. | New York : PublicA昀昀airs, 2024. | Includes bibliographical references. Identi昀椀ers: LCCN 2023042363 | ISBN 9781541704091 (hardcover) | ISBN 9781541704695 (trade paperback) | ISBN 9781541704152 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: United States—Foreign relations—China. | China—Foreign relations—United States. | United States—Foreign economic relations—China. | China—Foreign economic relations—United States. Classi昀椀cation: LCC E183.8.C5 A68 2024 | DDC 327.73051—dc23/eng/20231220 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2023042363 ISBNs: 9781541704091 (hardcover), 9781541704145 (ebook), 9781541704695 (international paperback) LSC- C 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 WorldOnBrink_HCtext4P.indd iv 2/10/24 11:15:19 AM

Deng Xiaoping Strategy, 1990 Xi Jinping Strategy, 2023 冷静观察 Observe calmly, 沉着冷静 Be calm, 稳住阵脚 secure our position, 保持定力 stay determined, 沉着应付 cope with a昀昀airs calmly, 稳中求进 seek progress and stability, 韬 光养晦 hide our capabilities and 积极作为 be proactive and achieve bide our time, things, 善于守拙 be good at maintaining a 团结一致 unite (under the banner low pro昀椀le, of the party), 决不当头 never claim leadership 敢于斗争 and dare to 昀椀ght Translation courtesy of Moritz Rudolf, a fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center of the Yale Law School, https://x.com/MoritzRudolf/status/1633667867836030977?s=20. WorldOnBrink_HCtext4P.indd 123 2/10/24 11:15:19 AM

ChinaChina JIANGXIJIANGXI ANHUIANHUI GUANGDONGGUANGDONG NorthNorth Yellow VVietnam ietnam Hong Hong Yellow KorKoreaea KongKong FUJIANFUJIAN ZHEJIANGZHEJIANG SeaSea South South KorKoreaea South South TTaipeiaipei East East China China TTaiwanaiwan China China SeaSea SeaSea Japan Japan PhilippinesPhilippines ManilaManila Panay Philippine SeaPhilippine Sea Panay NN Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy, NGA< GEBCO. Image Landsat / Copernicus WorldOnBrink_HCtext4P.indd 130 2/10/24 11:15:19 AM