142 Autonomous Logistics Could Double The Enterprise Value Of Precision Agriculture Thanks to continued automation and yield improvements enabled by breeding, transgenics, and agricultural biologics, the operating cost per bushel produced—a metric incorporating both cost and yield—could decline by ~30% across major US crops.* Agricultural companies with per-acre business models could generate autonomous platform fees on the cost savings from the S technology, achieving software-like margins. As a result, their collective enterprise value could roughly double to ~$600 billion at C I scale.** T S I US Farm Operating Cost Per Bushel for Major Crops* Global Agricultural And Farm Machinery G O L Farm Operating Costs Per Bushel Enterprise Value S U Autonomous Platform Fee Per Bushel O M $4.50 $700 O N $4.00 $600 O -30% T $3.50 AU $3.00 $500 ~2X $/Bushel $2.50 $ Billions$400 $2.00 $300 $1.50 $200 $1.00 $0.50 $100 $- $0 2022 At Scale 2023 At Scale (ARK Estimate) (ARK Estimate) *This analysis focuses on “Major Crops”—Corn, Soybean, and Wheat—which ARK defines as the top three crops in the US based on bushel production. Numbers are rounded. **When accounting for different cost compositions and adoption rates globally. This assumes a 50% autonomous platform fee and a 19X EV/EBITDA multiple on autonomous service earnings. Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2024. This ARK analysis is based on a range of underlying data from external sources, using the latest available data as of January 4, 2024, which may be provided upon request. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Annual Research Report | Big Ideas 2024 Page 141 Page 143