10 AI Is Accelerating Faster Than Forecasters Anticipated Expected Years Until Launch Of A General Artificial Intelligence System Pre GPT-3 average (Log Scale) 100 80 years OpenAIannounces GPT-3 Google demonstrates advanced 50 conversational agent, LLaMda2 years ChatGPTlaunches to the public s 34 years CE r a N e GPT-4 launches E Y G f o 18 years R E r V e10 N b m CO Nu 8 years If for ecast is wel l - tun e d If for ecast er r or con tin ues 1 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2024, based on data from Metaculus, including benchmark details, as of January 3, 2024. Benchmark broadly requires the successful passage of an adversarial two-hour Tuning test, broad success on a Q&A knowledge and logic benchmark, and the successful interpretation of and execution complex model car assembly instruction, all within a single system. Green lines are derived estimates for time to general purpose AI (strongly formulated) based upon forecasts for a weaker benchmark. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.