Forecast summary Real GDP growth (%) 2022* 2023* 2024* AXA IM Consensus AXA IM Consensus AXA IM Consensus World 3.2 2.3 2.8 Advanced economies 2.5 0.1 1.0 US 1.9 1.7 -0.2 0.2 0.9 NA Euro area 3.2 3.0 -0.3 0.0 0.9 NA Germany 1.7 1.4 -0.6 -0.9 0.8 NA France 2.4 2.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 NA Italy 3.6 3.3 0.0 -0.1 0.6 NA Spain 4.5 4.4 0.3 1.2 1.3 NA Japan 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 NA UK 4.3 4.1 -0.7 -0.3 0.8 NA Switzerland 2.3 2.2 0.6 0.7 1.3 NA Canada 3.2 3.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 NA Emerging economies 3.6 3.5 3.8 Asia 4.1 4.8 4.5 China 3.0 3.2 5.0 4.8 4.8 NA South Korea 2.3 2.6 1.5 1.6 2.0 NA Rest of EM Asia 5.5 4.9 4.4 LatAm 3.5 1.7 2.4 Brazil 2.7 2.6 1.0 0.9 2.0 NA Mexico 2.2 2.1 1.0 1.2 2.0 NA EM Europe 0.5 -0.9 2.1 Russia -3.0 -3.8 2.0 Poland 4.4 4.1 0.1 1.1 2.4 NA Turkey 5.9 5.1 0.5 2.2 1.4 NA Other EMs 4.5 3.6 3.6 Source: Datastream, IMF and AXA IM Macro Research − As of 30 November 2022 CPI Inflation (%) 2022* 2023* 2024* AXA IM Consensus AXA IM Consensus AXA IM Consensus Advanced economies 7.5 5.0 2.7 US 8.2 8.0 5.1 3.9 3.4 NA Euro area 8.6 8.3 5.6 5.8 2.4 NA China 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 NA Japan 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.3 NA UK 9.1 8.9 7.6 6.4 2.8 NA Switzerland 2.8 3.0 2.0 2.3 1.3 NA Canada 6.8 6.8 4.3 3.5 2.4 NA Source: Datastream, IMF and AXA IM Macro Research − As of 30 November 2022 Central bank policy Meeting dates and expected changes (Rates in bp / QE in bn) Current Q4-22 Q1-23 Q2-23 Q3-23 Q4-23 Dates 1-2 Nov 3 1 -1 Jan/F e b 2 -3 May 2 5 -26 J ul 3 1 -1 Oct / N ov United States - Fed 3.25 13-14 Dec 2 1 -22 M a r 1 3 -14 J un 1 9 -20 S e p 1 2 -13 D e c Rates +1.25 (4.25-4.50) +0.5 (4.75-5.00) unch (5.00) unch (5.00) unch (5.00) Dates 15 Dec 2 Feb 4 M a y 2 7 J ul 2 6 Oct Euro area - ECB 1.50 16 Mar 1 5 J un 1 4 S e p 1 4 D e c Rates +0.5 (2.00) 0.5 (2.50) unch (2.50) unch (2.50) unch (2.50) Dates 19-20 Dec 17-18 Jan 2 7 -28 A pr 2 7 -28 J ul 3 0 -31 Oct Japan - BoJ -0.10 9-10 Mar 1 5 -16 J un 2 1 -22 S e p 1 8 -19 D e c Rates unch (-0.10) unch (-0.10) unch (-0.10) unch (-0.10) unch (-0.10) Dates 3 Nov 2 Fe b 1 1 M a y 3 A ug 2 N ov UK - BoE 2.25 15 Dec 23 Mar 2 2 J un 2 1 S e p 1 4 D e c Rates +1.25 (3.50) +0.75 (4.25) unch (4.25) unch (4.25) -0.25 (4.00) Source: AXA IM Macro Research - As of 30 November 2022 29