CIO Insights Resilience versus recession Figure 8: FX forecasts for end-December 2023 Source: Deutsche Bank AG. Forecasts as of November 17, 2022. EUR vs. USD 1.05 USD vs. JPY 140 EUR vs. JPY 147 EUR vs. CHF 1.00 EUR vs. GBP 0.90 GBP vs. USD 1.15 USD vs. CNY 7.35 Following the winter, growth in the Eurozone and in China in particular should pick up again. This could weaken the USD and lift the EUR. Emerging markets boast the weakest as well as the strongest currencies. The latter include Brazil, Uruguay, Chile and Peru, countries that are profiting from high commodity prices. South America’s central banks were also quick to start raising their base rates. The expected global economic recovery in the second half of 2023 should benefit most commodities. In this context, the currencies of other commodity-exporting countries such as Australia, Canada and Norway seem to have (catch-up) potential, too, following the pressure that the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone experienced in 2022. FX: King dollar – turnaround Market and portfolio implications: o USD may lose tailwind in 2023 o EUR/USD expected to be 1.05 at year end 2023 o The weaker USD could boost markets In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. This document was produced in December 2022. 13