Baseline Moderate Full Subsector Tech Group 2023 2030 2040 2050 2023 2030 2040 2050 2023 2030 2040 2050 residential Reference 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 83% 29% 2% refrigeration residential High 0% 17% 71% 98% refrigeration EfÏciency residential Reference 67% 67% 66% 65% 67% 60% 52% 49% 67% 55% 23% 6% space heating residential Electric 33% 33% 34% 35% 33% 40% 48% 51% 33% 45% 77% 95% space heating residential Reference 55% 54% 53% 53% 55% 49% 45% 45% 54% 40% 7% 0% water heating residential Electric 45% 46% 47% 47% 45% 51% 55% 55% 46% 60% 93% 100% water heating buses Reference 98% 98% 98% 98% 97% 75% 46% 41% 98% 80% 15% 0% buses High 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% EfÏciency buses Electric 1% 22% 47% 51% 0% 18% 77% 90% buses Hydrogen 0% 2% 7% 8% 0% 1% 8% 10% heavy duty Reference 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 94% 80% 72% 100% 86% 44% 10% trucks heavy duty Electric 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 20% 28% 0% 7% 41% 65% trucks heavy duty Hydrogen 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 15% 25% trucks light duty Reference 94% 87% 73% 66% 95% 84% 47% 29% 95% 81% 32% 4% autos light duty High 3% 4% 6% 8% 4% 8% 10% 9% 3% 3% 1% 0% autos EfÏciency light duty Electric 3% 9% 21% 27% 2% 8% 43% 62% 2% 16% 65% 92% autos light duty Hydrogen 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 5% autos light duty Reference 98% 93% 86% 82% 96% 76% 37% 24% 97% 83% 34% 4% trucks light duty High 2% 4% 6% 7% 2% 9% 10% 8% 1% 1% 0% 0% trucks EfÏciency light duty Electric 1% 4% 9% 11% 2% 16% 53% 68% 2% 16% 60% 86% trucks light duty Hydrogen 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 6% 9% trucks medium duty Reference 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 92% 59% 37% 100% 88% 52% 12% trucks medium duty Electric 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 41% 63% 0% 11% 40% 71% trucks medium duty Hydrogen 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 8% 17% trucks SPP FUTURE LOAD SCENARIOS | EVOLVED ENERGY RESEARCH | 36