Baseline Moderate Full Subsector Tech Group 2023 2030 2040 2050 2023 2030 2040 2050 2023 2030 2040 2050 commercial Electric 14% 14% 14% 14% 15% 27% 46% 50% 16% 35% 78% 94% space heating commercial Reference 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 92% 77% 68% 99% 81% 37% 6% ventilation commercial High 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 23% 32% 1% 19% 64% 95% ventilation EfÏciency commercial Reference 52% 51% 55% 55% 52% 51% 55% 55% 52% 47% 17% 1% water heating commercial High 42% 43% 38% 38% 42% 43% 38% 38% 41% 38% 11% 1% water heating EfÏciency commercial Electric 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 16% 72% 99% water heating residential air Reference 99% 99% 99% 98% 99% 92% 82% 81% 99% 82% 61% 65% conditioning residential air High 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 8% 18% 19% 1% 18% 39% 35% conditioning EfÏciency residential Reference 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 86% 79% 99% 92% 71% 52% building shell residential High 1% 7% 14% 21% 1% 8% 29% 48% building shell EfÏciency residential Reference 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 9% 2% 0% clothes drying residential Electric 89% 88% 88% 87% 89% 88% 88% 87% 89% 91% 98% 100% clothes drying residential clothes Reference 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 82% 18% 0% washing residential High clothes EfÏciency 0% 19% 82% 100% washing residential Reference 30% 31% 33% 34% 30% 31% 33% 34% 30% 28% 14% 1% cooking residential Electric 70% 69% 67% 66% 70% 69% 67% 66% 70% 72% 86% 99% cooking residential Reference 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 81% 16% 0% dishwashing residential High 0% 19% 84% 100% dishwashing EfÏciency residential Reference 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 87% 42% 8% freezing residential High 0% 14% 59% 92% freezing EfÏciency residential Reference 37% 19% 14% 11% 37% 19% 14% 11% 37% 19% 14% 11% lighting residential High 63% 81% 86% 89% 63% 81% 86% 89% 63% 81% 86% 89% lighting EfÏciency SPP FUTURE LOAD SCENARIOS | EVOLVED ENERGY RESEARCH | 35