of clearer policy signals and consistent regulation report, the impact of these events disproportionately and enforcement, mitigation efforts will be shaped affects low- and middle-income countries. It by increasingly disruptive climate activism, raising registered as a top-昀椀ve risk in 25 countries surveyed the likelihood of stranded assets – as well as people. by the EOS, in particular in developing coastal states A just transition that supports those set to lose across Latin America, Africa and South-East Asia. from decarbonization is increasingly invoked by countries heavily dependent on fossil-fuel industries As 昀氀oods, heatwaves, droughts and other extreme as a reason to slow down efforts. These challenges, weather events become more severe and frequent, against the backdrop of a deteriorating economic a wider set of populations will be affected. In landscape and in昀氀ated input costs, may postpone parallel, a consolidation of public- and private- investments in greener production methods – sector resources may set up emerging and pressing 35 particularly in heavier, “dirtier” industries. trade-offs between disaster recovery, loss and damage, adaptation and mitigation. Although climate All of this implies that the risks of a slower and more mitigation has been overwhelmingly favoured over disorderly transition (extensively covered in last year's adaptation in terms of 昀椀nancing to date, particularly Global Risks Report) have now turned into reality, in the private sector,38 EOS results indicate that potentially leading to dire planetary and societal climate adaptation may now be seen as a more consequences. Any rollback of government and immediate concern in the short term by business private action will continue to amplify risks to human leaders. Failure of climate change mitigation only health (explored in Chapter 2.3: Human health) and featured in the top 昀椀ve risks over the next two years spur the deterioration of natural capital, as discussed in one economy, Zambia, whereas the Failure of in Chapter 2.2: Natural ecosystems. Climate climate-change adaptation was a top-昀椀ve risk change will also increasingly become a key migration in 16 countries, such as the Netherlands, where it driver and there are indications that it has already ranked 昀椀rst (Figure 1.8). The diversion of attention contributed to the emergence of terrorist groups and and resources towards adaptation may further 36 con昀氀icts in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. slow progress on global-warming targets in the economies that remain the biggest contributors to Indeed, with 1.2°C of warming already in the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.39 system, the compounding effect of a changing climate is already being felt, magnifying humanitarian Despite plans for a global goal on adaptation challenges such as food insecurity, and adding to be agreed at COP28, there has also been another hefty bill to already stretched 昀椀scal insuf昀椀cient progress towards the support required 37 balances. In the GRPS results, “Natural disasters for infrastructure and populations already affected and extreme weather events” was considered the by the fallout from climate change. Adaptation has second-most severe risk over the next two years. As not been adequately funded, with 34% of climate 40 with many of the global risks featured in this year’s 昀椀nance currently allocated to adaptation worldwide. FIGURE 1.8 National risk perceptions: climate action "Which five risks are the most likely to pose the biggest threat to your country in the next two years?" A. Failure of climate-change adaptation B. Failure of climate-change mitigation Rank Rank 1 10 20 30 1 10 20 30 Source World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey 2022. Global Risks Report 2023 22