January 2023 Global Risks Report 2023 Executive Summary The 昀椀rst years of this decade have heralded a development after decades of progress, rapid and particularly disruptive period in human history. The unconstrained development of dual-use (civilian and return to a “new normal” following the COVID-19 military) technologies, and the growing pressure of pandemic was quickly disrupted by the outbreak of climate change impacts and ambitions in an ever- war in Ukraine, ushering in a fresh series of crises in shrinking window for transition to a 1.5°C world. food and energy – triggering problems that decades Together, these are converging to shape a unique, of progress had sought to solve. uncertain and turbulent decade to come. As 2023 begins, the world is facing a set of risks The Global Risks Report 2023 presents the results that feel both wholly new and eerily familiar. We have of the latest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS). seen a return of “older” risks – in昀氀ation, cost-of-living We use three time frames for understanding global crises, trade wars, capital out昀氀ows from emerging risks. Chapter 1 considers the mounting impact of markets, widespread social unrest, geopolitical current crises (i.e. global risks which are already confrontation and the spectre of nuclear warfare – unfolding) on the most severe global risks that many which few of this generation’s business leaders and expect to play out over the short term (two years). public policy-makers have experienced. These are Chapter 2 considers a selection of risks that are being ampli昀椀ed by comparatively new developments likely to be most severe in the long term (10 years), in the global risks landscape, including unsustainable exploring newly emerging or rapidly accelerating levels of debt, a new era of low growth, low global economic, environmental, societal, geopolitical and investment and de-globalization, a decline in human technological risks that could become tomorrow’s FIGURE A Global risks ranked by severity over the short and long term "Please estimate the likely impact (severity) of the following risks over a 2-year and 10-year period" 2 years 10 years 1 Cost-of-living crisis 1 Failure to mitigate climate change 2 Natural disasters and extreme weather 2 Failure of climate-change adaptation events 3 Geoeconomic confrontation 3 Natural disasters and extreme weather events 4 Failure to mitigate climate change 4 Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse 5 Erosion of social cohesion and societal 5 Large-scale involuntary migration polarization 6 Large-scale environmental damage 6 Natural resource crises incidents 7 Failure of climate change adaptation 7 Erosion of social cohesion and societal polarization 8 Widespread cybercrime and cyber insecurity 8 Widespread cybercrime and cyber insecurity 9 Natural resource crises 9 Geoeconomic confrontation 10 Large-scale involuntary migration 10 Large-scale environmental damage incidents Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2022-2023. Global Risks Report 2023 6