January 2023 Global Risks Report 2023 Tomorrow’s Catastrophes 2 Global Risks 2033: Tomorrow’s Catastrophes 2.1 The world in 2033 As risks highlighted in the past chapter unfold Based on GRPS results, the longer-term global today, much-needed attention and resources are risks landscape is also dominated by deteriorating being diverted from global risks that may become environmental risks (Figure 2.1). More speci昀椀cally, tomorrow’s shocks and crises. The Global Risks climate- and nature-related risks lead the top 10 Perceptions Survey (GRPS) addresses a one-, risks, by severity, that are expected to manifest two- and 10-year horizon. Chapter one addressed over the next decade. Differentiated as separate the present and two-year time frame, focusing on risks for the 昀椀rst time in the GRPS, Failure to currently unfolding and shorter-term risks. This mitigate climate change and Failure of climate- chapter focuses on the third time frame: risks that change adaptation top the rankings as the most may have the most severe impact over the next 10 severe risks on a global scale, followed by Natural years. disasters and extreme weather events and “Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse”. FIGURE 2.1 Global risks ranked by severity over the long term (10 years) 1 Failure to mitigate climate change 6 Natural resource crises 2 Failure of climate-change adaptation 7 Erosion of social cohesion and societal polarization 3 Natural disasters and extreme weather 8 Widespread cybercrime and cyber insecurity events 4 Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse 9 Geoeconomic confrontation 5 Large-scale involuntary migration 10 Large-scale environmental damage incidents Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2022-2023. Comparing the two-year and 10-year time frames worsening scores over the course of the 10-year provides a picture of areas of increasing, decreasing time frame, indicating respondents’ concerns about and continued concerns according to GRPS increased severity of these risks in the longer term. respondents (Figure 2.2). The top right of the graph “Large-scale involuntary migration, rises to 昀椀fth indicates global risks that are perceived to be place in the 10-year time frame, while Erosion the most severe in both the short and long term. of social cohesion and societal polarization is These are consistent areas of global concern and, perceived to be slightly more severe over the longer arguably, attention. Four environmental risks have term. Global Risks Report 2023 29