January 2023 Global Risks Report 2023 Resource Rivalries: Four Emerging Futures 3 Resource Rivalries: Four Emerging Futures 3.1 Anticipating “polycrises” Chapter one and Chapter two highlighted newly unexpected consequences. Bearing this in mind, emerging and rapidly accelerating risks over the this chapter explores how connections between the current, two- and 10-year time frame to provide emerging risks outlined in previous sections may analysis on risks currently unfolding or those that evolve by 2030. This year, we explore Resource may become the next global shock. However, these Rivalries - a potential cluster of interrelated present and future risks can also interact with each environmental, geopolitical and socioeconomic risks other to form a “polycrisis” – a cluster of related relating to the supply of and demand for natural global risks with compounding effects, such that the resources. The intent is not to exhaustively outline 1 overall impact exceeds the sum of each part. all scenarios but to provide a structured approach to identifying potential futures for the polycrisis that Scenario thinking can be a useful tool to enable may be triggered, providing a framework for better better anticipation of polycrises, as key drivers preparedness and risk mitigation efforts today. can interact in unanticipated ways and lead to 3.2 Polycrisis: natural resources, climate and cooperation A growing demand-supply gap for natural resources Supply-chain crises of recent years have highlighted the need for resilience in traditional strategic sectors. Reliable and cheap access to the most basic of necessities – food, water and energy – underpins the critical functioning of societies. Early data suggests that current crises are driving a worrying reversal of recent progress. An additional 200 million people faced acute food insecurity last year compared to 2019,and the number of people worldwide without electricity rose to an estimated 774 million, 2 the equivalent of pre-pandemic levels. As noted in Chapter 1.2, Cost-of-living crisis, supply crises of this nature can be highly destabilizing, exposing the fragility of states and leading to loss of life, widespread violence, political upheaval and involuntary migration. Demand for food, water and critical metals and minerals is escalating. This re昀氀ects a range of is projected to increase by 1.4% annually over the factors, including continued population growth, next decade, concentrated in low- to middle-income 3 anticipated to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, and countries, versus a 1.1% per annum increase in 4 socioeconomic advancement, with a push to achieve production. One estimate places the gap between the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by water demand and supply at 40% by 2030, with a the target date of 2030. Global food consumption dramatic and unequal increase in demand between Global Risks Report 2023 57