power will continue to be leveraged to achieve energy and water insecurity becomes a driver of strategic objectives by more subtle, indirect means. social polarisation, civil unrest and political instability Facing actual or perceived shortages, states in advanced and developing economies alike. It also continue to quickly and regularly exercise control becomes a driver for cross-border terrorism, with over key resources to protect their own population, devastating impacts given the proliferation of high- which will fracture alliances, deepen conditions of tech weaponry (see Chapter 2.4: Human security). scarcity, and result in escalating trade tensions that restrict the 昀氀ow of climate technologies. Exposed on In this future, there has been little incentive – or multiple fronts, state intervention grows in a broader 昀椀scal room – to invest in climate change and range of industries, including renationalization of environmental protection. Overexploitation and industries. pollution – the tragedy of the global commons – has expanded, but continues to go unpunished Confrontations regularly extend beyond the or undiscovered, and existing agreements and economic sphere. Transboundary con昀氀icts and regulations are regularly breached or not enforced. violence have become more common as one of Famine has returned at a scale not seen in the the few ways in which states can secure supply last century. The sheer scale of humanitarian and of strategic resources. Hotspots re昀氀ect shifts to environmental crises showcases broader paralysis biodiversity patterns, heightened competition over and ineffectiveness of key multilateral mechanisms terrestrial and marine foodstocks, and the pressing in addressing crises facing the global order, need for metals and minerals that underpin secure spiralling downwards into a self-perpetuating and energy and technological development. Food, compounding polycrises. Global Risks Report 2023 66