KEY EMERGING ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES businesses, and consumers—will in昀氀uence The cost to build and operate new solar photovoltaic and energy use in buildings, transportation, and wind-powered plants is broadly cheaper than equivalent power, which together account for a majority fossil fuel–fired power plants. Even more efficient, lower cost of global emissions. Many of these technolo- renewable technologies, such as perovskite solar cells, are gies could also contribute to greater energy poised to transform and disrupt energy industries in the next resilience and self-su昀케ciency for states. two decades. Moreover, increasingly connected wind turbine Increased E昀昀orts To Remove technology is enabling massive and lower-cost offshore wind Carbon Dioxide projects worldwide. China is the world’s largest producer and The success of e昀昀orts to remove carbon diox- exporter of solar panels and wind turbines. ide from the atmosphere will also be critical. Advanced energy storage will be needed to enable more The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate renewables in grid systems and support broad deployment of Change estimates that mitigating emissions electric vehicles. Lithium-ion batteries have seen large cost re- alone almost certainly will not be enough to duction and performance improvements in recent years, and limit warming to 1.5°C, which increases the im- investments are also increasing in potentially safer, cheaper, portance of technologies that remove carbon more powerful, and longer duration alternatives. In the fu- dioxide from the atmosphere to use it or store ture, it is likely that advanced energy storage would allow for it underground. Most of the modeled path- the development of decentralized and autonomous electrical ways to limit warming to 1.5°C involve a sub- grids that integrate batteries, renewable power sources, and stantial expansion of carbon dioxide removal electric vehicles and that potentially have no need for backup (CDR) primarily through a昀昀orestation and from fossil fuels. bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Other technologies being researched Green hydrogen—produced through electrolysis with no include soil sequestration, ocean fertilization, by-products—has the potential to play a greater role in stor- and direct air capture. Research into and a ing excess solar and wind energy and helping to decarbonize push to deploy BECCS—still a nascent technol- heating, industry, and heavy transport. The industry is still ogy—almost certainly will increase because in its infancy, but costs are expected to come down because it is one of the few negative emissions tech- countries with cheap renewable energy sources are particular- nologies that exist because it uses carbon ly interested in it, such as Chile. dioxide to grow biomass that is converted to usable energy while storing the carbon dioxide Several companies are developing small modular nuclear underground. Currently about 25 commercial- reactors (SMRs), about one-third the size of traditional nu- ly operational CDR projects o昀昀set a negligible clear reactors, which could lead to broader acceptance from amount of yearly emissions, and e昀昀orts to countries traditionally opposed to nuclear projects because scale up CDR will face policy, technological, SMRs are smaller and safer. SMRs have the potential to and economic constraints absent market provide power generation to remote areas, such as in Africa, incentives. More countries may introduce a which could help developing countries electrify their popula- carbon tax, or a credit for removing carbon, in tions without increasing emissions. In addition, SMRs—when an e昀昀ort to speed up CDR as well as broaden combined with solar and wind power—could help solve the adoption of renewable energy technologies. problem of intermittency. Complementary Actions on Emissions Many more actors are likely to join internation- al and governmental e昀昀orts to address climate 38 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040