them for a disaster they believe was caused grow their economies and increase emissions by geoengineering. will more forcefully demand that developed countries provide them with advanced energy BROADER IMPLICATIONS AND DISRUPTIONS technologies to leapfrog their energy systems In addition to direct physical e昀昀ects of climate to a low carbon model. In addition, develop- change, states and societies are likely to be ing countries will increasingly demand that strained by hard choices and tradeo昀昀s given developed countries meet their commitments the di昀케culty and costs of drastic emissions to provide 昀椀nancing to help vulnerable popu- cuts and adaptive measures. The burden lations adapt. Greater demands will be made of these steps will not be evenly distributed on international 昀椀nancing vehicles such as the within or between states, and the long-term Green Climate Fund, which has approved $4 payo昀昀 of mitigation policies runs counter to billion worth of adaptation projects. political incentives, making it di昀케cult to sus- Heighten Competition. Climate change and tain controversial commitments. The second- environmental degradation will contribute to and third-order implications of climate change and re昀氀ect a more contested geopolitical envi- will a昀昀ect human and national security in ronment. Countries and other actors are likely several ways. to compete over food, mineral, water, and Drive Societal Cleavages and Political energy sources made more accessible, more Movements. Concerns about climate change valuable, or scarcer. Receding Arctic sea ice have grown across the globe with hundreds is opening new sea routes and opportunities of thousands of protesters—mostly young to access valuable resources there, including people—marching in the streets advocating natural gas and oil deposits, rare earth met- for faster change. Policy responses to mitigate als, and 昀椀sh stocks. Russia is building more or adapt to climate change also contribute icebreakers to patrol its northern coastline to political volatility—particularly when they and project power as an Arctic leader, and are linked to broader socio-political inter- even non-coastal states like China and India ests—such as the French protests against fuel are seeking to take advantage of shorter trade price hikes in 2018. In Europe, nationalist and routes and resources. In addition, China is try- populist parties have capitalized on public ing to boost its international image by claiming concerns about the economic hardships to be a leader on climate diplomacy despite associated with climate mitigation policies, its growing emissions—already the highest in and they have framed their opposition in the world. terms of equality and social justice for working Contribute to Instability and Con昀氀ict Risk. class populations. Rarely is climate change the sole or even pri- Increased Pressure for Global Action. mary driver of instability and con昀氀ict; however, As warming continues to rise, there will be certain socio-political and economic contexts more debate and tension among countries are more vulnerable to climate sparks that over transparency, cuts, and responsibility. ignite con昀氀ict. Countries of particular concern Developing countries that want the room to are those with ethnic or religious polariza- 40 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040