SCENARIO 5 TRAGEDY AND MOBILIZATION n 2040, a global coalition, led by the HOW WE GOT THERE European Union (EU) and China working In the early 2030s, the world was in the midst Iwith nongovernmental organizations of a global catastrophe. Rising ocean tempera- (NGOs) and revitalized multilateral tures and acidity devastated major 昀椀sheries already stressed by years of over昀椀shing. At the institutions, is implementing far-reaching same time, changes in precipitation patterns changes designed to address climate depressed harvests in key grain producing change, resource depletion, and poverty areas around the world, driving up food prices, triggering widespread hoarding, and disrupt- following a global food catastrophe caused ing the distribution of food supplies, leading to by climate events and environmental global famine. A wave of unrest spread across degradation. Richer countries shift to help the globe, protesting governments’ inability poorer ones manage the crisis and then to meet basic human needs and bringing down leaders and regimes. In one of many transition to low carbon economies through incidents in the Western world, thousands of broad aid programs and transfers of people were killed in three days of violence in advanced energy technologies, recognizing Philadelphia triggered by social media rumors about bread shortages. how rapidly these global challenges spread across borders. The ongoing famines catalyzed a global move- ment that advocated bold systemic change to address environmental problems. Across the world, younger generations, shaped by the COVID-19 pandemic and traumatized by the threat of running out of food, joined together across borders to overcome resistance to re- form, blaming older generations for destroying their planet. They threw their support behind NGOs and civil society organizations that were involved in relief e昀昀orts and developed a larg- er global following than those governments that were perceived to have failed their popu- lations. As the movement grew, it took on oth- er issues including global health and poverty. 118 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040 Image / Bigstock