As physical barriers went up, dependence on digital commerce and communications soared, KEY TAKEAWAYS but a combination of information manage- ment challenges and repeated data security breaches led those states with strong cyber Separating economies has dire consequences, including mas- controls, like China and Iran, to reinforce their sive financial losses for countries and corporations, as supply cyber barricades. Then states that once advo- chains fracture, markets are lost, and once lucrative sectors, cated for an open Internet set up new closed, like travel and tourism, decline. The resulting economies are protected networks to limit threats and screen less vulnerable to future supply chain disruptions but also out unwanted ideas. By 2040, only the United States and a few of its closest allies maintained less efficient. the semblance of an open Internet while most Larger countries with abundant resources, few nearby ene- of the world operated behind strong 昀椀rewalls. mies, and defensible borders, such as the United States and With the trade and 昀椀nancial connections that Canada, are better able to adapt than most others. The focus de昀椀ned the prior era of globalization dis- on self-sufficiency makes some states more resilient even as rupted, economic and security blocs formed around the United States, China, the EU, others founder. Russia, and India. Smaller powers and other To maintain domestic stability in this world, states adopt mixed states joined these blocs for protection, to pool resources, and to maintain at least some political models combining elements of democracy and author- economic e昀케ciencies. Advances in AI, ener- itarianism, increasing surveillance and potentially repression. gy technologies, and additive manufacturing Many states turn to exclusionary forms of nationalism to unify helped some states adapt and make the blocs majority populations against perceived foreign enemies. economically viable, but prices for consumer goods rose dramatically. States unable to join Unable to attract talent globally or sustain international a bloc were left behind and cut o昀昀. collaboration, technological innovation atrophies. Wealthy Security links did not disappear completely. countries begin to compensate by shifting resources to States threatened by powerful neighbors domestic education. sought out security links with other powers for their own protection or accelerated their own International organizations and collective action to tackle programs to develop nuclear weapons, as the climate change, healthcare disparities, and poverty falter. ultimate guarantor of their security. Small con- Countries independently adapt to the catastrophic impacts, 昀氀icts occurred at the edges of these new blocs, particularly over scarce resources or emerging significantly increasing the incentive for risky solutions. opportunities, like the Arctic and space. Poorer countries became increasingly unstable, Focused on internal security, the world’s larger militaries avoid and with no interest by major powers or the direct armed conflict. Rival blocs compete for control over United Nations in intervening to help restore scarce resources, leading to smaller wars or other means of order, con昀氀icts became endemic, exacerbat- diverting attention from domestic problems and rallying public ing other problems. Lacking coordinated, support against foreign enemies. Nuclear weapons proliferate. multilateral e昀昀orts to mitigate emissions and address climate changes, little was done to slow greenhouse gas emissions, and some states experimented with geoengineering with disastrous consequences. A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 117