SCENARIO 4 SEPARATE SILOS n 2040, the world is fragmented into HOW WE GOT THERE several economic and security blocs of By the early 2030s, cascading global challenges Ivarying size and strength, centered on from decades of job losses in some countries the United States, China, the European in part because of globalization, heated trade disputes, and health and terrorist threats Union (EU), Russia, and a few regional crossing borders prompted states to raise barriers and impose trade restrictions to powers, and focused on self-suf昀椀ciency, resiliency, and defense. Information conserve resources, protect citizens, and pre- serve domestic industries. Many economists 昀氀ows within separate cyber-sovereign thought that economic decoupling or separa- enclaves, supply chains are reoriented, tion could not really happen because of the and international trade is disrupted. extensive interdependence of supply chains, Vulnerable developing countries are caught economies, and technology, but security con- cerns and governance disputes helped drive in the middle with some on the verge of countries to do the unthinkable, despite the becoming failed states. Global problems, extraordinary costs. notably climate change, are spottily Countries with large domestic markets or addressed, if at all. sizeable neighbors successfully redirected their economies, but many developing econo- mies with limited resources and market access were hit hard as both import and export markets dried up. Economic stagnation fos- tered widespread insecurity across Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, fueling a retreat to subnational ethnic and religious identities, strained societies, fragmented states, and spreading instability. New waves of migrants headed to the developed world hoping to escape poverty, poor governance, and increas- ingly harsh environmental conditions. Their hopes were dashed when political pushback prompted destination countries to block most migration. 116 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040