er to prosper; the two sides agreed in the fast enough to prevent some catastrophic 2030s to protect their most vital common impacts. Wealthy countries were able to economic interests. invest in adaptation measures at home to China and the United States formed rival “com- protect at risk populations, but developing munities of common values” that compete countries lagged behind and su昀昀ered the for markets and resources under opposing most from increased disasters, presenting domestic systems, one based on state direc- second-order security challenges. tion, autocratic control, and public surveillance technologies and the other on private enter- prise, democracy, personal freedom, and open KEY TAKEAWAYS information 昀氀ows. The competition somewhat dampened fragmentation within countries as populations rallied to support their countries The US-China rivalry and other state-to-state relations are and leaders. Much of the work of managing channeled into competition for markets, resources, and brand the 昀氀ow of trade and information was done by reputation within mutually accepted rules in these areas. large corporations doing business globally. The Publics rally around their governments in the competition, United States, China, and like-minded states tempering societal fragmentation. belonging to their respective camps intervened to prevent small con昀氀icts from escalating to Strengthened economic interdependence lowers the risk the point that they would threaten global of the major powers pursuing armed conflict; most of them economic progress and stability. Nevertheless, engage in influence operations, corporate espionage, and geopolitical competition, such as in the South China Sea, remained a persistent threat to eco- cyber attacks that allow them to achieve goals without risking destructive wars. nomic relations, and many internal con昀氀icts in poor countries festered with little international The central security challenge is how to keep the geopolitical e昀昀ort to intervene. Rising commodity prices and demand for for- competition between the United States and China from under- eign workers stimulated an economic recovery mining the economic cooperation upon which their prosperity that improved prospects for growing middle and the global economy depends. classes in some developing countries. Several advanced economies with aging populations Long-term stability remains at risk from growing climate chal- set up guest worker programs, 昀椀lling import- lenges that were ignored in favor of near-term economic gains; ant service jobs while reducing uncontrolled technological innovations and economic prosperity have lulled migration using biometric tracking programs. leaders into believing that they can put off making hard choices Rising wages in China led to outsourcing and on climate change. income gains in India, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa. Nonetheless, large youthful populations in the developing world, especial- ly in Africa, did not bene昀椀t from the reviving global economy. Advances in renewable energy generation and storage and in carbon capture technologies dampened the growth of emissions, but not James Kenny / Unsplash | Macau Photo Agency / Unsplash A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 115