GLOBAL TRENDS2040 A MORE CONTESTED WORLD RUSSIA AND EURASIA a Internet Users (of population)c FIVE LARGEST CITIES By population in 2035 (million) b % GDP PER CAPITA 0 54.7 100 US$ at purchasing 2020 2040 2020 b 1 MOSCOW, RUSSIA 12.8 power parity 2019 Digital skills of workforce ratingd TYPES OF READINESS FOR $18.4K $30.4K a 3.9 2 SAINT PETERSBURG, RUSSIA 5.6 GOVERNMENTS DIGITAL ECONOMY 1 = not at all to a great extent = 7 Number of countries 3 TASHKENT, UZBEKISTAN 3.0 c Information globalization ratinge RELIGION 0 79.2 Liberal Democracies 1 = low high = 100 4 KYIV, UKRAINE 3.0 2020 61.3% 32.5% 5.5% Hold free and fair multiparty elections and guarantee freedom of speech and b 2019 or latest available data. 5 BAKU, AZERBAIJAN 2.8 2040 % % % expression. Liberal democracies also c International Telecommunication Union. 57.6 38.1 3.6 uphold the rule of law and have d World Economic Forum. Christian Muslim Agnostic/ constraints on the executive. e KOF Globalization Index. Atheist 3 Electoral Democracies f 2020 2040 This map illustrates likely changes in maximum temperature, a a Hold free and fair multiparty elections drought, and hurricane/cyclone activity in 2040—compared to AGE STRUCTURE AGE STRUCTURE and guarantee freedom of speech and expression, but do not uphold the 1980-2005 baseline—given conditions specified by the Under 15 15-64 65+ Under 15 15-64 65+ the rule of law and/or do not have United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change constraints on the executive. (IPCC) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. 21.2% 66.0% 12.8% 18.0% 64.9% 17.1% While several different temperature measures could have been 2040 used, maximum temperature on the hottest day of the year was 8 TEMPERATURE, chosen given the severe human, agricultural, and economic costs MALE Age FEMALE MALE Age FEMALE Electoral Autocracies DROUGHT, AND associated with heat waves. When combined with longer 80+ 80+ Hold elections but they are not free, fair, HURRICANE droughts, these effects are multiplied. 75-79 75-79 and multiparty, and/or the government ACTIVITY 70-74 70-74 does not guarantee freedom of speech 65-69 65-69 and expression. 60-64 60-64 0 2.5 55-59 55-59 Increase in the hottest day 50-54 50-54 1 temperature, Celsius 45-49 45-49 Closed Autocracies 40-44 40-44 Do not even hold multiparty 35-39 35-39 elections for the chief executive. 30-34 30-34 Increase in the longest annual 25-29 25-29 drought by 2.5 days or more 20-24 20-24 a Varieties of Democracy, 2020. The 15-19 15-19 number of countries included in this 10-14 10-14 study may not equal the number listed f Data: Clemens Schwingshackl, Jana Sillman, and the Centre for 5-9 5-9 separately under “Selected Regions Increase in major International Climate and Environmental Research. 0-4 0-4 and Countries. hurricane activity Graphic: Pardee Center University of Denver. 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 Million Million a b c 126 United Nations Population Division. | Oxford Economics. | World Religion Database.